313
FXAK69 PAFG 122252
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
152 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BEGINNING ON THE NORTH SLOPE,
COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF "WARM UP" SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A
FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD
COME WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR IS EXPERIENCING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
TODAY WITH A BREAK TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOPS TOMORROW MORNING IN SW AK AND SPREADS NORTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG MOST OF THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS, SNOW
REACHES THE CENTRAL INTERIOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES,
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW MAINLY ENDS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE INTERIOR.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A QUICK-HITTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AROUND 1 INCH OF LIGHT
SNOW BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND TRAVEL
EASTWARD AND BE OUT OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
- AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH IN THE HILLS AND 25 MPH IN FAIRBANKS ARE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW THEN MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK AS HIGH AS 50 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW PERSIST TODAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE WEST COAST BEGINNING
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR.
- NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THEN SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS COULD CREATE BLIZZARD TO NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 65 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BRIEFLY
RESTRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRAVEL EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY
EVENING. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AS THIS FRONT PASSES BUT IT
WILL BE HEAVIEST AROUND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH A HIGH OVER THE NPAC, A
TROUGH IN THE ARCTIC RANGING FROM THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO TO THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS IS ALL ALLOWING FOR SOME PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE
INTERIOR. THE FIRST IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTH SLOPE
TO THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE.
THE MAIN STORY IS A LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA AND
STRENGTHENING ON FRIDAY. SNOW MOVES INTO THE YUKON DELTA FRIDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND TO THE
YUKON DELTA AND A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR, A PLETHORA OF WINTER STORM
WATCHES AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVER A WIDE SWATH OF THE INTERIOR AS THIS SNOW MOVES
NORTHWARD. ONE THING TO BE CONSIDERED IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
GLAZE OF ICE IN THE YUKON DELTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS IS A LOW CHANCE OVERALL. EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL
REMAIN ALL SNOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERIOR, WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
THE INTERIOR AND UP TO 25 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN. THE
SNOW WILL ALL END SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER A SECOND WAVE OF FLUFFY SNOW
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW EXIST NEXT WEEK AND THAT WILL BE TOUCHED ON IN THE EXTENDED.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED, WHAT WAS ONCE
LOOKING COLDER THAN NORMAL IS TRENDING A BIT WETTER. THE MAIN
CULPRIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NPAC IS APPEARING TO NOT
EXTEND AS FAR NORTH, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE BERING ARE
TRENDING STRONGER FASTER, NOT ALLOWING THE HIGH TO BUILD RAPIDLY.
THIS WILL GIVE CHANCES FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW NEXT WEEK, ONE OF
WHICH BEING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS TRENDED MUCH
STRONGER AND MODELS ARE INDICATING A LOW AROUND 980MB AROUND THE
GULF OF ANADYR. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PART IS, WILL IT MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR OR GET BLOCKED BY THE
HIGH. GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS, A LEAN TOWARDS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
NEXT WEEK SEEMS PROBABLE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801>810.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ822>824-828>830-851-852.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ814>818-820-821.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ825>827.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ834-838>847.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-816-817-850-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-804-811.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ805-852-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-814-859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-860-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ858.
BIANCO
LEWIS...KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
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