796
FXAK69 PAFG 131501
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
601 AM AKST FRI FEB 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE NORTH SLOPE AND EASTERN INTERIOR
WILL SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS
CANADA. WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE VISIBILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED FROM FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL MOVE
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
TANANA VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE YUKON DELTA COASTLINE.
THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT, WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW OCCURING DURING THE FIRST WAVE. THIS STORMIER WEATHER
PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A QUICK-HITTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AROUND 1 INCH OF LIGHT
SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND TRAVEL EASTWARD
AND BE OUT OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
- THE PARKS HIGHWAY FROM THE NENANA HILLS TO DENALI PARK COULD
SEE UPWARDS OF A FOOT OF SNOW.
- FAIRBANKS COULD SEE A LARGE SPREAD ACROSS TOWN, BUT EXPECT 7 TO
10 INCHES. AREAS NORTH OF TOWN COULD SEE UP TO A FOOT.
- THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY FROM HARDING LAKE TO NORTH POLE COULD
SEE UP TO A FOOT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
EIELSON AFB.
- AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH IN THE HILLS AND 25 MPH IN FAIRBANKS ARE
POSSIBLE. WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING SNOW, VISIBILITIES COULD
BE REDUCED BELOW A MILE AS WELL AS DRIFTING SNOW.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS
MORNING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST WITH HEAVIER SNOW
EXPECTED FROM THE NORTON SOUND COASTLINE TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY.
- NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THEN SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE Y-K DELTA COASTLINE AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 65 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BRIEFLY
RESTRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
THIS MORNING. WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW WE ARE SEEING
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
THE NORTH SLOPE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE OUT OF THE STATE AND INTO CANADA. AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO ACCOMPANY IT. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST AND THE POLAR, ARE
CREATING A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. BLOWING SNOW IS
REDUCING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION, AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE SLOWLY THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA, AND SHOULD
BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING MUCH MORE ORGANIZED THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT INHIBITING AS MUCH OF
WARMER AND MOISTER AIR FROM ENTERING THE INTERIOR. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO STALL IN THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR, THE WARM FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. THERE IS GOING TO
BE A EXTREMELY HEALTHY DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SNOW RATIOS OF 20 TO 1 OR
HIGHER. WITH ANY CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT OCCURS, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE MORE SNOW THAN FORECASTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERIOR, WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN
THE INTERIOR AND UP TO 25 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN. THE
SNOW WILL ALL END SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER A SECOND WAVE OF FLUFFY SNOW
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE TREND CONTINUES FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH
PACIFIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GET FLATTENED BY A STRONG LOW THAT
MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA. WITH THE HIGH BEING FLATTENED WE COULD
SEE MOISTURE BEING ABLE TO GET ADVECTED INTO THE INTERIOR OF
NORTHERN ALASKA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IF A FRONT
MAKES IT INTO THE INTERIOR WE COULD SEE MODERATE SNOWFALL. SOME
MODELS HOWEVER ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH THAT WOULD BLOCK THE MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND INSTEAD
DIRECT INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WOULD INHIBIT HOW MUCH SNOW
WOULD BE ABLE TO FALL, SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT IN
THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WITH HOW MANY SMALL PIECES ARE
WITHIN THE PATTERN RIGHT NOW, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHAT WILL HAPPEN EXACTLY, BUT TRENDS DO INDICATE A
STORMY WEEK.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801>810.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ802>806-808.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ822>824-828>830-851-852.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ814>818-820-821.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ825>827.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ834-838>847.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-805-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809-855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-814-859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-860-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
DENNIS
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