035
FXAK69 PAFG 141458
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
558 AM AKST SAT FEB 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WIDE SWATH OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST AND
INTERIOR ALASKA ARE IN EFFECT. AS A WARM FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA, THERE WILL BE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND LOW
VISIBILITY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING, BUT BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST LATER
THIS EVENING, BRINGING MORE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE ON THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE TANANA
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW GOING THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA,
BRINGING A MOISTURE LADEN WARM FRONT ONTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST, AND CHANCES FOR MODERATE
SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A ROBUST SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN FALLING SNOW THIS EVENING, BUT THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL ONLY SEE LIGHT
SNOW WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED.
- THE PARKS HIGHWAY FROM THE NENANA HILLS TO DENALI PARK COULD
SEE UPWARDS OF A FOOT OF SNOW.
- FAIRBANKS COULD SEE A LARGE SPREAD ACROSS TOWN, BUT EXPECT 8 TO
11 INCHES. AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF TOWN COULD SEE UP TO A
FOOT.
- THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY FROM HARDING LAKE TO NORTH POLE COULD
SEE UP TO A FOOT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
EIELSON AFB.
- AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH OVER EAGLE SUMMIT, 40 MPH ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND 30 MPH IN FAIRBANKS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING SNOW, VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED
BELOW A MILE DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH VALLEYS REACHING DOWN TO AROUND 40 BELOW.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A SHORT BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD 6 TO 11 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL SEWARD PENINSULA WILL ONLY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TO THE GULF OF
ANADYR. THIS SYSTEM IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT IT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL, WITH WIDESPREAD 6 TO 12 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO THE Y-K DELTA.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN
BROOKS RANGE RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES, THOUGH LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD WITH LOWS NEAR 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LIGHTER WINDS AND QUIETER WEATHER
LOOK TO PREVAIL.
- THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COASTLINE WILL SEE STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT
SNOW ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR HAS BEEN
OVER-PREFORMING THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE 25TH TO 50TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HERE IN
THE TANANA VALLEY. THERE IS A MUCH WIDER SPREAD GOING FROM THE
50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INFLUENCING THE PERCENTILES AND PRODUCING MUCH MORE SHOWERY
SNOW WITH THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW. OUR CURRENT FORECAST STILL
REFLECTS A HIGHER PERCENTILE OUTCOME, AND WITH THE WEST COAST
OVER-PREFORMING, IT IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT HERE IN THE
TANANA VALLEY WE WILL SEE SNOWFALL PUSHING THE 9 TO 12 INCH RANGE.
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATED AN 8000 FOOT FULLY SATURATED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ). THIS WAS BEFORE THE WARM FRONT MOVED
CLOSER TO THE REGION, AND WITH THE COLUMN FULLY SATURATED THAT DGZ
SHOULD BE APPROACHING 10000 FEET. SNOW RATIOS WILL START LIGHT
THIS MORNING, BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA,
AND KEEP THE ICE CRYSTALS SUSPENDED WITHIN THE DGZ MUCH LONGER.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SNOW IS
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE Y-K DELTA AND
SEWARD PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL VERY QUICKLY
MOVE EASTWARD, AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF
THE ALASKA RANGE AND TANANA VALLEY. WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS STATIONARY FRONT WE WILL SEE CONTINUED
MODERATE SNOWFALL TOMORROW. THIS SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE BANDING. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THOSE BANDS SOME
AREAS WILL RECEIVE MORE SNOW THAN OTHERS. THERE IS A 925 MB JET
THAT WILL BE ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT. SOME MODELS KEEP A WELL
MIXED LAYER TO THE SURFACE STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS A
WELL MIXED LAYER WE COULD SEE WINDS DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS UP TO 30
MPH. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN, BUT THE CHANCE IS STILL THERE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
ANOTHER ROBUST LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ANADYR ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE FIELDING A MOISTURE LADEN WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ON THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
LARGE MODEL SPREAD ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT THE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND. THE Y-K DELTA TO THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR COULD SEE MODERATE
SNOWFALL FROM THIS FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA, IT DOES LOSE ORGANIZATION. WITH THE POSITION OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC HIGH IT WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO REACH INTO
THE INTERIOR AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST. THERE IS A TRAILING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO HELP ADVECT THE MOISTURE INTO INTERIOR ALASKA.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
INTO THE TANANA VALLEY. WITH HOW MUCH MODEL SPREAD THERE IS ON THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, IT WOULD BE TOUGH TO KEY ONTO A SPECIFIC RANGE,
BUT THE PATTERN ITSELF WOULD WARRANT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ822>824-828>830-851-852.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ814>821.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ834-838>847.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-804-850>853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-808>810-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-855-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ854-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860-861.
DENNIS
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