578
FXAK69 PAFG 142208
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
108 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BUSY WEATHER WEEK IS UPON US AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW AND WIND
IMPACT MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THE FIRST ROUND IS MOVING THROUGH
THE INTERIOR NOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WHILE THE WEST
COAST IS QUIETING DOWN. THE WEST COAST WILL RAMP BACK UP A LITTLE
BIT TONIGHT WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND, BUT EXPECTED IN THE YUKON DELTA. THIS SNOW MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AS WELL, THEN INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE WEST COAST IS DRY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT A STRONG FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR TUESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WILL EXCEED 12 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AND SOME
SPOTS MAY EVEN APPROACH 2 FEET OF SNOW.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED FROM THE WHITE MTNS
SOUTH/WEST.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 50 MPH
AROUND EAGLE SUMMIT, 40 MPH IN THE TERRAIN ABOVE 1000FT AND 30
MPH IN FAIRBANKS. BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MOSTLY IN THE HILLS.
- A BREAK IN THE SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT, BUT MORE SNOW MOVES BACK IN
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE LIGHT/FLUFFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES
SOUTH/WEST OF THE WHITE MTNS.
- A DRY BREAK FOR MOST OF MONDAY (OUTSIDE OF A SNOW SHOWER),
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- SNOW MOVES BACK IN TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES WITH PERIODS OF
SNOW LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- CONDITIONS QUIETING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON BUT SNOW MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE YUKON DELTA COAST FROM 10PM TO 5AM.
- 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM KOTZEBUE TO THE YUKON
DELTA.
- A BREAK IN SNOW AND WIND SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
THEN A STRONG FRONT BRINGS HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND GUSTS (60+
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST) MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE COASTLINE.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST.
- PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
MOST SPOTS. STRONGEST WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
LIKELY FROM KOTZEBUE SOUND TO POINT HOPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN POINT LAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT BUT LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE AROUND THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE AS A FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD.
- MONDAY IS MOSTLY QUIET AND COLD WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- STRONG EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN POINT LAY AND
POINT HOPE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE CULPRIT FOR ALL OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
IS 583 DECAMETER RIDGE AT ABOUT 40N/160W. THIS HIGH IS ORIENTED
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, BUT SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE MAX'S ARE ABLE
TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE IN THE BERING AND OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.
THIS IS ALLOWING FOR AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
MOISTURE. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE INTERIOR
WHICH IS WHY THERE IS WIDESPREAD SNOW. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TAP INTO SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND INTERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
THEN A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE PROGRESSING
NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE VERY
STRONG WINDS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH WITH HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSITIONS NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST WITH
THIS FRONT.
AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH, DETAILS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FOGGY HEADING INTO MIDWEEK AND THIS WILL BE COVERED IN THE
EXTENDED SECTION.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE BEING A LITTLE FINICKY AND BOUNCING BACK
AND FORTH BETWEEN BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW INTO THE INTERIOR, OR
KEEPING MOST OF IT IN WESTERN ALASKA. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF CAME IN
WITH WITH A MUCH WEAKER EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC
WHICH ALLOWS THE BERING SEA LOW A PATH TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWEST
INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. THIS ALLOWS MORE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
TROUGH FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE BERING SEA AND LESS DIGGING
INTO THE INTERIOR. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC AREN'T TOO FAR OFF BUT
THERE ARE MINOR DETAILS WHICH KEEP MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE
INTERIOR WHEREAS THE ECMWF TRIES TO CUT IT OFF WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. NONETHELESS, EVERY SOLUTION IS SHOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH AND IF IT WILL BE
ORGANIZED. THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS WILL
BECOME CLEARER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ822>824-828>830-851-852.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ814>821.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ825.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ826.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ827.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ834-838>847.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-812-852-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-806-808-814-815-860-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-809-810-813-855-856-859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ858.
BIANCO
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