795
FXAK69 PAFG 142322
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
322 PM AKDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY CALM YET COLD CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA WITH A
FEW EXCEPTIONS ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO
PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INCREASING TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND DIOMEDE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS
THAN A HALF MILE AT TIMES. SIMILAR SITUATION THE REST OF THIS
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WHERE WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
ARE REDUCING VISIBILITY AS WELL. COLD AND CALM CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES FROM THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED EAST, MAINLY TOWARD THE
ALASKA/CANADIAN BORDER AND TANANA VALLEY. THIS SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN STAYS LARGELY THE SAME FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS NEAR RECORD
COLD PERSISTS FOR THE INTERIOR WHILE COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE ALASKA
RANGE AND TANANA VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM
SETS UP IN THE GULF. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR BLOWING SNOW AND
POTENTIALLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES AND PASSES OF THE ALASKA RANGE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. DESPITE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE −30S AND −40S NEXT
WEEK.
- NORTH WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES SUNDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
- MAINLY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FAR EASTERN INTERIOR WHERE SNOW
CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT
LEADING TO PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA FOR
VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AT TIMES.
- RELATIVELY MILDER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BUT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH DOUBLE DIGIT
SUBZERO LOWS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
BERING STRAIT AND WEST COAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TODAY
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
- LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE ARCTIC COAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES FROM DEADHORSE EASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
VERY SIMILAR DAY TO DAY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED, FEATURING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTS. DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE PERSISTENT OVER ALASKA THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH WHILE A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE BERING. THIS PATTERN KEEPS
NORTHERLY FLOW AND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER
ALASKA WHILE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC DIVE INTO
THE STATE. A STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS
WEEKEND AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AND INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES AT TIMES FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR.
FIRST ITEM TO FOCUS ON WILL BE THE SNOW AND WIND THREAT FOR THE
ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND,
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, THE NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE, RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS STRENGTHENS FOR THE INTERIOR, FURTHER
INCREASING THE GRADIENT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ALONG WITH NUMEROUS WAVES OF ENERGY RESULTING IN SNOW CHANCES FOR
THE FAR EASTERN INTERIOR, UPPER TANANA VALLEY, AND ALASKA RANGE.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OVERALL BE FAIRLY MINOR WITH A COUPLE INCHES
LIKELY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW FOR THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINKING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL ELSEHWERE IN THE SE INTERIOR SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
STAY UNDER WARNING OR ADVISORY CRITERIA; HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
WATCH WINDS THROUGH FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FOR THE ARCTIC COAST, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS
IMPACT THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING
THE THREAT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE FORECAST.
BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW A HALF MILE HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TODAY, HOWEVER EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH TOMORROW AS WINDS SLIGHTLY
DECREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH
SLOPE ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES
THROUGH, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE BLOWING SNOW BY MONDAY. THE
PATTERN FOR THE ARCTIC WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE AND NUMEROUS WAVES ROTATING AROUND
A POLAR LOW INCREASING THE WESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SNOWFALL
CHANCES. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE
ARCTIC COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES,
MAY NEED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR
DEADHORSE AND POINTS EAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME WHERE THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. NORTHERLY
WINDS RAMP UP TONIGHT WITH THE PASSING OF THE FIRST SYSTEM.
BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND
AREAS ALONG THE WEST COAST PRONE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
THIS ROUND SHOULD PEAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE BERING STRAIT,
THEN SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW
PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN SEWARD AND BALDWIN PENINSULAS. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING
THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE
THREAT INCREASING FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW.
FOR THE INTERIOR, DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A LOW SETS UP IN THE GULF AND
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC,
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -30C ONCE
AGAIN! ACCORDING TO THE SPC CLIMATOLOGY PAGE, THIS AIRMASS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE BREAK RECORD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE, BUT FOR LOW
TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TOO. THIS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AND DEEP
ARCTIC AIRMASS ENGULFS THE ENTIRE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY LOWS IN THE INTERIOR IN THE -20S TO -40S. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND
NORTH SLOPE AS CLOUDS SHOULD MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHAT.
AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT BREAKING DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THROUGH THE
WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD.
WATCHING FOR ANOTHER, LONGER LASTING ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE BERING AND ALONG THE WEST COAST MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS WITH SHORTWAVES
DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC. ALSO WATCHING THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
AS LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE CHANCE
FOR HIGH WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WHILE THIS IS
NEARLY A WEEK OUT, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN. DEADHORSE TO POINT THOMSON TO BARTER ISLAND WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE THE WORST CONDITIONS, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A POSSIBLE MULTI-DAY NEAR BLIZZARD EVENT.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A NEAR RECORD COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ENGULFS THE STATE AND STAYS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT CLEARING OUT
NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY LOWS IN THE -20S TO -40S ONCE AGAIN. THE
ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX HIGHLIGHTS NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA FOR
ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, FURTHER
RAISING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ848-850.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815-860-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
CRM
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