091
FXAK69 PAFG 150955
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
155 AM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
RELATIVELY STABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY COLD INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. MORE MODERATE, BUT STILL COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, NORTHERLY
FOR THE WEST COAST AND WESTERLY FOR THE ARCTIC COAST. PERIODS OF
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY DUE TO A BUILDING LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS SAME LOW BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE COLDER WEATHER FOR THE REGION IS VERY LIKELY
TO LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING WEEK. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING COOL WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE −30S AND −40S
THIS WEEK.
- NORTH WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES SUNDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
- MAINLY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FAR EASTERN INTERIOR WHERE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAY
LEAD TO PERIODS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKEN SUNDAY MORNING.
- RELATIVELY MILDER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BUT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH DOUBLE DIGIT
SUBZERO LOWS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
FOR THE BERING STRAIT AND WEST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. 10 TO 20 MPH GENERALLY, STRONGEST ALONG THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT SNOW AND PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
BETWEEN TRACE AND 0.5 INCHES.
- TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY AND REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW 0 AND LOWS
IN THE 20S TO TEENS BELOW 0.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY A STRONG 570 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL HIGH AT THE TOP OF
A RIDGE PATTERN IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS FEATURE
EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS WEATHER FROM THE WEST ELIMINATING THE MOST
COMMON MOISTURE SOURCE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AND PROMOTING FLOW FROM
THE NORTH. THIS RESULTS IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD PATTERN FOR
NORTHERN ALASKA WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST AS LONG AS THAT RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE.
A STRONG 481 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE HUDSON BAY,
FAR TO THE EAST IN CANADA, PROVIDES THE GREATEST VARIATION IN
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY SLINGING SHORTWAVE LOWS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AS THESE SHORTWAVES ARE COMING FROM THE
FAR NORTH OVER THE FROZEN ARCTIC OCEAN THEY ARE RELATIVELY DRY BUT
WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH SLOPE AND PARTS OF
THE WEST COAST AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. THEY ALSO INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST COAST INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WHEN THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN.
ON SUNDAY ONE OF THESE STRONGER SHORTWAVES CONTINUES SOUTH INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST
COAST TO WEAKEN WHICH LOWERS THEIR WINDS, BUT INCREASES NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. ONCE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS SHORTWAVE BECOMES ABLE TO
BETTER SUSTAIN ITSELF AND FORMS INTO A MORE DISTINCT AND
INDEPENDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS 'NEW' LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA COMPLICATES THE OTHERWISE SIMPLE PATTERN SLIGHTLY BY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AND PUSHING SOME LIGHT
SNOW AROUND THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AS COLD AIR IS PULLED FROM THE NORTH TO
SETTLE OVER THE INTERIOR. CLOUD COVER WILL SLIGHTLY MITIGATE THE
COLDEST VALLEY TEMPERATURES BY LIMITING NIGHTTIME COOLING, BUT
GAPS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR NOTABLE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS STRONG INVERSIONS DEVELOP.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THIS COLDER, DENSER AIR SETTLES
INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS REINFORCES THE PREVIOUSLY WEAKENING LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAKENS THE BERING SEA RIDGE MAKING A
PATTERN CHANGE SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ848-850.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-807-816-817-850-851-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ853-854.
STOKES
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