467
FXAK69 PAFG 152316
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
316 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD, QUIET, AND SUNNY SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA TODAY!
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR REMAINS QUIET AND VERY COLD
GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK, ACTIVE WEATHER RAMPS UP ALONG BOTH THE
WEST AND ARCTIC COASTS AS WELL AS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE.
WATCHING FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM DEADHORSE EASTWARD. ISOLATED AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY ON THE WEST COAST DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ARRIVES
BY WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO RAMP UP TONIGHT FOR THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
−30S AND −40S THIS WEEK.
- NORTH WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TONIGHT
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
- INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE FAR EASTERN
INTERIOR AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BLOWING SNOW AROUND THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AND NORTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER EVEN
COLDER AIR ARRIVES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE -20S TO
-30S
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE BERING AND ALONG ALL
OF THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. 10 TO 20 MPH GENERALLY WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW POSSIBLE.
- WATCHING THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AROUND AND EAST OF DEADHORSE
FOR PERIODS OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. WORST
CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
NORTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VERY COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
CONFINED TO THE COASTS AND THE ALASKA RANGE. CURRENTLY, A STRONG
570DM RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE BERING, BLOCKING ANY WEATHER
SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC FROM IMPACTING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OR WEST. THE MAIN FEATURES IMPACTING SURFACE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK ARE WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OR
DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC, INCREASING WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW ALONG THE COASTS. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH IS VERY
WEAK TO NONEXISTENT, SO EXPECTING ANY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO REMAIN
ALONG THE COASTS, WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS COLD AND DRY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETS UP IN THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND MEANDERS
AROUND FOR THE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
FOR TODAY, A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA, WHILE A MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE GULF INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS AROUND THE PRINCE
WILLIAMS SOUND. WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE, THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN ALASKA REMAINS QUITE
CLEAR TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING MOISTURE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY; HOWEVER EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF STRENGTHENS, INCREASING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. WHILE ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE TANANA VALLEY AND UP TO FORTYMILE COUNTRY, THE
NORTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE MAY MAKE FOR
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE, LEADING TO PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW IN THE GULF SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FAR SE INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE WHILE THE
REST OF THE INTERIOR STAYS MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY.
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTH SLOPE, DAILY CHANCES FOR CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SNOW EXIST DUE TO NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTH OUT
OF THE ARCTIC. AT THE SURFACE, A POLAR LOW MEANDERS THROUGH THE
HIGH ARCTIC, KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF DEADHORSE. EACH SHORTWAVE ROTATING
INTO THE STATE TIGHTENS THAT GRADIENT, LEADING TO PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS, BLOWING SNOW, AND LIGHT SNOW. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES OVER WHEN THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER
FOR NOW THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN NEAR BLIZZARD OR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN AGAIN TOWARDS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
THROUGHOUT THE NORTH SLOPE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NW ARCTIC
COAST.
ALONG THE WEST COAST, A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE BERING SEA HIGH HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TODAY. WORST CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS BLOWING SNOW OFF THE SEA ICE HAS
RESULTED IN VISIBILITY AT A 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. EXPECT WINDS TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND PERIOD OF WINDS ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, BECOMING EVEN COLDER HEADING INTO
THE NEW WEEK. EACH SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC WILL
ALSO BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR, DROPPING 850MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE -30C RANGE... ALMOST RECORD COLD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE DEEPENING ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DAILY
LOWS NEARING RECORD TERRITORY IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND ANY AREA
THAT CLEARS OUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD -30S TO EVEN
-40S EACH NIGHT BEGINNING TONIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
LARGELY THE SAME PATTERN GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE BERING AND UPPER LOWS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE INTERIOR REMAINS DRY AND VERY COLD
GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE ACTIVE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN STAYS ALONG THE COASTS.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR ALL
OF THE WEST COAST AND BERING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AGAINST THE BERING SEA HIGH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE, EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRACK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BASED ON
THE SET UP, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND BLIZZARD PRODUCTS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE BERING STRAIGHT, AREAS AROUND THE KOTZEBUE
SOUND, AND ALONG THE NW ARCTIC COAST FOR BLOWING SNOW AND LOW
VISIBILITY.
SIMILAR SITUATION EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BEEN WATCHING THIS SIGNAL FOR A FEW DAYS NOW
WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS UP THERE. WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY; HOWEVER
SEVERAL OTHER STRONG WIND AND BLOWING SNOW EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THIS STRONG ONE, SO EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER TO PERSIST FOR PORTIONS
OF THE ARCTIC COAST.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ848-850.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
CRM
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