287
FXAK69 PAFG 161056
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
256 AM AKDT MON MAR 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE OVERALL COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN IS SET TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. INTERIOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
TO 40S BELOW ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC COAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG THE WEST COAST MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO BLOWING SNOW, MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ALONG
THE ARCTIC COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST, COULD
ALSO LEAD TO PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
30S AND 40S BELOW 0.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
BLOWING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE FAR EASTERN
INTERIOR AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S BELOW 0.
- LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE
WEST COAST. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
INCH.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE BERING AND ALONG ALL
OF THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES,
ESPECIALLY THOSE VULNERABLE TO WINDS FROM THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. 10 TO 20 MPH GENERALLY WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM DEADHORSE EAST. PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE.
- WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FROM
DEADHORSE EAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS BELOW 0 AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW 0. COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FURTHER INLAND OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS WITH
LOWS IN THE -30S TO -40S POSSIBLE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY MORNING, THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY A 564 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS AT THE CENTER OF A RIDGE PATTERN OVER
THE BERING SEA. THIS RIDGE PATTERN IS BLOCKING THE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WOULD BE ABLE TO CHANGE THE
PATTERN. SO LONG AS THAT RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE, THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA REMAINS STAGNANT. A STRONG
488 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEASTERN CANADA SLINGS
SHORTWAVES INTO NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE NORTH SLOWLY WEAKENING
THE RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE BERING.
THE MOST RECENT OF THE LARGER SHORTWAVES TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED INTO A 980 MILLIBAR LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS LOW HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES. THIS LOW IS ALSO ABLE TO WRAP SOME MOISTURE
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND THIS DEVELOPING
LOW IS ENCOURAGING COLDER AIR TO MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR FROM THE
NORTH AND SETTLE BETWEEN THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK.
THE NEXT NOTABLE SHORTWAVE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN ZIPS
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND SEWARD PENINSULA TOWARDS
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST COAST AND STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS
FOLLOWING THE LOW. THIS LOW WILL REINFORCE THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW
ONCE IT REACHES THE GULF LATE WEDNESDAY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE
PATTERN FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. HOWEVER THE RIDGE THAT IS BLOCKING
WESTERLY FLOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED FROM THESE SHORTWAVES AND OTHER
FEATURES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SLOWLY MAKING A PATTERN
CHANGE MORE LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THURSDAY THE
GENERALLY COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. THE FEATURES
THAT ARE MAINTAINING THIS PATTERN WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD MAKING A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE MORE LIKELY NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE COLDER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ848-850.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
STOKES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page