475
FXAK69 PAFG 162303
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
303 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN ALASKA THIS
WEEK WHILE DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR.
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE REDUCING VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW
A HALF MILE AT TIMES FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TODAY WHERE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED. VERY COLD AND BREEZY
ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY, THEN EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING
SNOW, AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER 40MPH. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND ISABEL PASS AS STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH VALLEY LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BLOWING
SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- LIGHT SNOW IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY TODAY DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S BELOW ZERO.
- LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE
WEST COAST. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
INCH.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE BERING AND ALONG ALL
OF THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS WHERE BLOWING SNOW
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHERE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE REDUCING VISIBILITY TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND AND EAST OF DEADHORSE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S BELOW. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FURTHER INLAND OVER
THE ARCTIC PLAINS WITH LOWS IN THE -30S TO -40S POSSIBLE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
NORTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP
NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE INTERIOR WHILE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS AND THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE.
CURRENTLY, A STRONG 570DM RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE BERING,
BLOCKING ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE PACIFIC FROM IMPACTING THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH OR WEST. THE MAIN FEATURES INFLUENCING
SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS WEEK ARE SHORTWAVES TRACKING UP AND OVER
THE RIDGE OR DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC, INCREASING WINDS
AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE COASTS WHILE STRENGTHENING THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVER THE STATE. AN UPPER LOW MEANDERS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEK, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND ALASKA RANGE. A
STRENGTHENING LOW IN THE GULF HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE STATE LEADING TO ELEVATED NORTH WINDS IN TYPICALLY CALM
AREAS OF THE INTERIOR AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH ALASKA RANGE
PASSES. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES BEFORE THE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOMEWHAT
MIDWEEK. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY ONWARD HOWEVER STILL EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW TO
CONTINUE. GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO UNDER-DO NORTHERLY WIND
EVENTS AND WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN THE INTERIOR STRENGTHENING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND BUILDING UP AGAINST THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ALASKA RANGE, THERE IS A CHANCE STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK. ANY LOCATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN WIND
SHELTERED AREAS. THIS MORNING THERE WAS A 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
RANGE FROM FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO FORT WAINRIGHT WITH
FAIRBANKS SURPRISINGLY MUCH WARMER DUE TO ELEVATED NORTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT. WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY PLUMMET INTO
THE -30S AND -40S ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH
THE INTERIOR, LIKELY NEARING OR BREAKING RECORD LOWS. THE SAME
FORECAST IS EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY NORTH OF UTQIAGVIK AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY MINOR, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW AND
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARCTIC
COAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WHERE VISIBILITY HAS REACHED 1/4 MILE AT
TIMES. A SURFACE FRONT FROM THE POLAR LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
TRAVERSES THE COAST TOMORROW INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
LEADING TO GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WORST CONDITIONS FROM DEADHORSE EASTWARD, HOWEVER
BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE NORTH SLOPE THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
FOR THE WEST COAST AND BERING, CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY BENIGN TODAY
AND TOMORROW, BUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
SYSTEM ROUNDING THE BERING RIDGE ENTERS THE CHUKCHI SEA THEN
TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS ALSO SETS THE STAGE
FOR BLOWING SNOW AND GROUND BLIZZARD THREAT FOR COASTAL AREAS IN
WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO
50+ MPH AND BLOWING SNOW MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITY UNDER ONE HALF
MILE AT TIMES. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
LARGELY THE SAME PATTERN GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE BERING AND UPPER LOWS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE INTERIOR REMAINS DRY AND VERY COLD
GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND WHILE ACTIVE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN STAYS ALONG THE COASTS.
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING LATE WEEK FOR ALL OF THE
WEST COAST AND BERING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG VISIBILITY MAY
BE LOW AS THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH BLOWABLE SNOW OUT ON THE SEA ICE.
BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE
STRONG, BUT VISIBILITY MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS LEFT TO BLOW AROUND.
SIMILAR SITUATION EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF HIGH WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BEEN WATCHING THIS SIGNAL FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UP THERE. WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
ACCORDINGLY; HOWEVER SEVERAL OTHER STRONG WIND AND BLOWING SNOW
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA BEFORE THE WEEKEND EVENT, SO
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER TO PERSIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARCTIC COAST.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ848-850.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
CRM
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