482
FXAK69 PAFG 171324
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
524 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
OVERALL, THE PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. NECESSARY PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WINDS, BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL, AND LOW
VISIBILITY OVER THE ALASKA RANGE, EASTERN ARCTIC COAST, SEWARD
PENINSULA, AND YK DELTA COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, A CHANGE IN PATTERN IS EXPECTED.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LINGER IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH THE NEGATIVE 30S TO 40S RANGE.
- A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE SOUTH OF TRIMS CAMP FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES REACHING UP
TO 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH MUCH OF THE REGION
SEEING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE 20 TO 30 DEGREE
RANGE.
- LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN COASTLINE AND
WESTERN INTERIOR WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
- FOLLOWING THE LIGHT SNOW, NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SEWARD PENINSULA AND YK DELTA COAST FOR BLOWING SNOW AND LOW
VISIBILITY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST,
ESPECIALLY FOR POINT THOMSON AND KAKTOVIK WHERE A BLIZZARD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH 50 MPH WITH 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NORTH
SLOPE, GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW NEAR THE COASTLINES
AND 30S TO 40S BELOW IN THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND SURROUNDING
AREAS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONED OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERNS. THIS AREA OF RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA IS
ACTING AS A BARRIER FOR A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERNS, BUT IS
GRADUALLY BEING WEAKENED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
CANADA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS INFLUENCING WIDESPREAD
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO STICK
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA HAS BEEN SENDING INTERMITTENT
SHORTWAVES OVER THE STATE, WITH THE MOST RECENT INFLUENCING THE
FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO FORM OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND STRENGTHEN WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE PASSES. WRAPAROUND MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
LOW, BRINGING AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO AREAS OF THE
ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, AND ESPECIALLY INTERIOR VALLEYS, WITH
MODELS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE 20S, 30S, AND
EVEN 40S.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT TERM, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AROUND THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT FAR BEHIND. MODELS
ARE INCREASING IN AGREEMENT ON THESE WINDS KEEPING THE LOW IN THE
GULF STEADY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, A PATTERN CHANGE IS
ON THE HORIZON.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST, COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN CHANGE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
WINDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TO BE STRONGEST DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS AS WE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OUR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
TRANSITIONING INTO SPRING AND BREAK UP SEASON.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ850.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ817-818.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ823.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ848.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-860-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
SRINIVASAN
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