894
FXAK69 PAFG 172332
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
332 PM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
DIFFERENT DAY, SAME WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA FEATURING WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARCTIC COAST. THE WEST COAST JOINS
IN ON LIGHT SNOW AND POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TOMORROW
THROUGH FRIDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP THROUGH THE BERING.
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST IN
ADVANCE. LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE, THIS SIMILAR PATTERN
WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STUCK OVER THE STATE AND ACTIVE WEATHER
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH AND INTO APRIL.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LINGER IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH THE -30S TO -40S THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS AS
NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE IN THE INTERIOR.
- WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
- A MULTI-DAY NORTHERLY WIND EVENT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY, PERSISTING
INTO FRIDAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST COAST AND BERING. WIND
GUSTS OF 50MPH+ ALONG THE COAST AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW
EXPECTED WITH GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- NORTHERLY WINDS BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE
-20S TO -30S AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -50F EXPECTED.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, WORST CONDITIONS FROM NUIQSUT EASTWARD.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE -30S AND -40S. MODERATING TREND EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS REMAINS FAIRLY
STAGNANT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON TO BREAK DOWN
THE STRONG OMEGA BLOCK. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE STAYS IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND SIBERIA WHILE STRONG TROUGHING
AND NORTHERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER THE STATE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW, HIGH WINDS, AND
BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A
COMPLEX UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL BRING PERIODS OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST EVERY FEW DAYS
WHILE ALSO BRINGING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD. A
SEMI-PERMANANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SET UP IN THE NORTHERN
GULF, KEEPING THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WHILE
BRINGING SPORADIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN
INTERIOR AND TANANA VALLEY.
FOCUS FOR TODAY'S DISCUSSION IS THE ACTIVE WEATHER ON BOTH THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEAR SHOWS A SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SNOW FROM NUIQSUT TO BARTER ISLAND. A
BARRIER JET HAS FORMED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LEADING TO
THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EAST OF NUIQSUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THAT WAVE SHIFTS EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN THE
LOW VISIBILITY AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT WAVE DROPS DOWN FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC.
A MULTI-DAY HIGH WIND AND BLOWING SNOW EVENT IS IN THE FORECAST
ALL ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THROUGH THE BERING AS STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE BRINGS A ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST COAST AND NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA, BUT SINCE THERE'S LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS, EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THROUGH THE BERING, REINFORCED BY WAVES OF ENERGY PASSING
BY OVERHEAD AND A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE
YK DELTA NORTHWARD TO KOTZEBUE. WATCHING THE NW ARCTIC COAST FOR
POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 50 MPH ALONG THE
COAST, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
THROUGH THE INTERIOR, NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT RESULTING IN MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES GREATLY VARIED THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS
WINDY LOCATIONS REMAINED IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
WHILE WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS FELL INTO THE -30S. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD -30S AND -40S TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE INTERIOR, THEN THE CORE OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH SLOPE AND NW COAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THIS SAME WEATHER PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PERSIST IN SOME FASHION THROUGH EARLY APRIL. SIGNALS IN LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE AND SUB-SEASONAL OUTLOOKS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN STAYING
LARGELY THE SAME ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ARCTIC, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN WELL BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA.
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE STATE REMAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE PATTERN STAYS THE SAME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW MODERATING TREND OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS, WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE RATHER THAN CLOSER TO
-30C. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLOWLY MODERATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
BUT STILL EXPECT LOWS BELOW ZERO AND BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOW TEENS
ABOVE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ850.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ817-818.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ823.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ848.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-810-852-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-807-854-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809-853-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-860.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
CRM
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