711
FXAK69 PAFG 181149
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
349 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
OVERALL, THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE SHORT-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS ON THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
SUPPORTING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH 30 OR EVEN 40 BELOW.
- NORTHEAST WINDS IN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SLIGHTLY PICK UP
THIS WEEKEND WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR KOTZEBUE, THE SEWARD
PENINSULA EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE, AND THE YUKON DELTA
COAST FOR BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE GENERAL AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MAINLY STAY IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW RANGE, BUT 50 BELOW IS
POSSIBLE WITH WIND CHILL.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- A BLIZZARD WARNING EXPIRES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INCLUDING POINT THOMSON AND KAKTOVIK FOR
LIGHT SNOW AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
- FOLLOWING THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, A TEMPERATURE DROP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE NEGATIVE 30S AND 40S.
- LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MORE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN HAS STAYED GENERALLY THE SAME OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEASTERN
CANADA CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE STEADY WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVING. PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM THIS LOW HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING MOST OF
THIS WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IN AREAS
OF THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AS THEY
WRAP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT, RESULTING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER DIGGING DOWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, IS EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE FROM HIGHER LATITUDES. THE
INTERIOR REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET OTHER THAN THIS GRADUAL DROP IN
LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN
REGARDS TO THE WEST COAST, A SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN COASTLINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO FOLLOW, WITH
GUSTS REACHING UP TO 40 MPH AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY REACHING 50 BELOW IN SOME AREAS. THE SAME SHORTWAVE
BRINGING SNOW TO THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST, ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS SUCH
AS POINT THOMSON AND KAKTOVIK, THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE NORTH SLOPE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE A DROP IN LOW TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS A RESULT OF THAT STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW.
WHILE THE WEATHER HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY, A PATTERN CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY MORNING.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS ALMOST
ENTIRELY WEAKENED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING DOWN INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE, MODELS FOR 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE SHOWING A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE POSITIVE TEENS
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE INTERIOR.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, ANOTHER ROUND OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SNOWFALL
FOR SOME AREAS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE WEST COAST AND NORTH
SLOPE SEEM TO BE RELATIVELY DRY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION PASSING OVER THE REGION MID- WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP MID-WEEK AS WELL OVER THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN INTERIOR AND YK DELTA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ817-818.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ823.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-810-852-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-807-817-854-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-816-850-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
SRINIVASAN
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