319
FXAK69 PAFG 192200
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
200 PM AKDT THU MAR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS LOOK POISED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARCTIC COASTLINE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SOON FOLLOW IN
THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND LOOKS TO GET STARTED.
WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN RECENT DAYS, READINGS ARE
SURE TO STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WHILE NOT AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN, EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS, WITH LOWS REACHING THE 20S TO 30 BELOW.
- NORTHEAST WINDS IN INTERIOR VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH AND STRONGER
GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR BLOWING SNOW
AND WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH. ELSEHWERE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS INTERIOR WINDS DIMINISH
A BIT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AS MANY AREAS COULD SEE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW.
HOWEVER, 50 BELOW IS POSSIBLE WITH WIND CHILL.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS OF -60 TO -65 WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
- STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARCTIC
COASTLINE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BLIZZARD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION RESULTING IN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER
STORM WARNINGS GOING INTO AFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
- MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NORTH SLOPE, LASTING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE CHANGE IN PATTERN.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A PRONOUNCED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
ALASKA WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARCTIC COASTLINE DOWN THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THIS HAS MANAGED
TO KEEP BLOWING SNOW ONGOING IN MANY AREAS, THUS PLAN TO CONTINUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NEAR THE WESTERN COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX.
MEANWHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH HAS HELPED MAINTAIN A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH, A FAIRLY DECENT BAND OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR. AS
THESE CLOUDS LINGER OVERNIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SHOULD GET A BOOST WITH LOWS LEVELING OFF IN THE -20 TO
-25 DEGREE RANGE.
ATTENTION TURNS BACK TOWARDS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF (APPROXIMATELY 24 HOUR) WINDOW FOR
ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE TREND AS OF LATE
HAS BEEN TO KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN
RECENT SYSTEMS IN THE REGION. HOWEVER, HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT IT
DOESN'T TAKE MUCH WIND TO GET BLOWING SNOW ACTIVATED IN THE
REGION. AS SUCH A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COASTLINE FRIDAY WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES JUST TO
WEST AS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY FROM
DEADHORSE SOUTHWARDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DALTON.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COASTLINE, BUT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. THIS WILL OCCUR THANKS
TO ADDITIONAL DAYLIGHT AS WELL AS CONDITIONS BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WINDIER ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THUS PROMOTING ADDITIONAL MIXING AND
A SUBTLE WARMING TREND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801-820-821-825.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ823.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ804-805-808.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-805>807-816-817-850-851-853-
854-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-810-852-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
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