688
FXAK69 PAFG 202150
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS, BLOWING SNOW, AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON
SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE WHERE LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED FOR WEEKS SLOWLY TREND TO
NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NORTH SLOPE WARMS MORE QUICKLY TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMING TREND APPEARS TO
CONTINUE WITH POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE MONTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW WITH LOCALIZED VALLEYS
AROUND 30 BELOW. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS RISING INTO THE 20S.
- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE VALLEYS AND UP TO 40
MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY AND MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
FOR HIGH ELEVATION PEAKS SUCH AS EAGLE SUMMIT.
- NORTH WINDS INCREASE THROUGH ISABEL PASS THIS WEEKEND WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ON SATURDAY AND TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE YUKON AND
KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
- WINDS SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TODAY SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WITH WIND
CHILLS AS COLD AS 40 BELOW SATURDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS
TONIGHT MAINLY 10-20 BELOW TONIGHT, BUT LOCALLY AS COLD AS 30
BELOW. BY SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH PEAK TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST THEN DIMINISH ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN BLOWING
SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR POINT THOMPSON AND
BARTER ISLAND.
- VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AROUND 60 BELOW TODAY GRADUALLY WARM TO
AROUND 40 BELOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND AND AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER SIBERIA GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST.
THIS ALLOWS FOR INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM FROM MUCH BELOW NORMAL TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL WITH A FASTER WARM UP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS OCCURING
ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE BEAUFORT COAST THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SATURDAY.
AFTER A BREAK ON SUNDAY, A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST-CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE AND GULF OF ALASKA LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING
FOR INCREASING WINDS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTERIOR. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES MIXING HEIGHTS ALLOWING FOR GUSTS UP
TO ABOUT 40 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS MIXING SHOULD ALLOW SOME
GUSTINESS TO EXTEND INTO THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS TOO, BUT GUSTS
SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 20 MPH. SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR RESULTING IN MOSTLY CALM WINDS FOR MONDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE THE REALIZATION
OF THE PATTERN SHIFT. AN ARCTIC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH INTERIOR ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BY
WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THESE WINDS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERTOP THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS
REMAINED OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS, ALLOWING FOR IT TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE INTERIOR. BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF THE RIDGE AXIS
IS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, THEN WE WILL SEE WARM AIR BEING PUSHED INTO
THE INTERIOR FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS RIDGE AXIS GETS RESOLVED, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN NORTHERN ALASKA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-808.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-804-805-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-806-816-817-853-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-860.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
KUTTA
EXTENDED: DENNIS
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