591
FXAK69 PAFG 211336
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
536 AM AKDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
OVERALL, WE ARE WITNESSING THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF OUR CURRENT
PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND EXPAND NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS ALASKA, WHICH IS LIKELY
TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT
WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL SEE WEAKENING OF
THEIR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CLEARING AND WARMING WILL BE
THE MAIN PATTERN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW WITH THE COLDEST
SPOTS REACHING 40 BELOW IN THE VALLEYS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY REACHING 20 ABOVE.
- NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THE EAGLE
SUMMIT AREA COULD SEE SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THIS
TIME.
- GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES, ESPECIALLY ISABEL
PASS, COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 40 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE WEST COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY, WITH MAX GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH. LOW
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ALONG
WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE TEENS TO 20S
ABOVE, AND POTENTIALLY 30S ABOVE BY MID WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST COULD
REACH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN ATIGUN PASS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW, REACHING 40 TO 50
BELOW IN SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND
IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING AS RIDGING MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST
BEGINNING SATURDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING
OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALONG WITH
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
PATTERN CHANGE THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OCCUR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND,
WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND EXPANDS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN ALASKA. AS A RESULT OF THIS RIDGE EXPANSION, A GENERAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT THE START OF THE WEEK, WITH
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST EXPECTED TO SEE THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF
WARMING.
ON THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ON THE
NORTH SLOPE, A TIGHT GRADIENT CREATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA IS SUPPORTING STRONG WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, BLOWING SNOW, AND LOW VISIBILITIES. THESE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS GUSTY WINDS WEAKEN
AND VISIBILITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGING
BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH/NORTHEAST STARTING SATURDAY, SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THIS PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE WILL SUPPORT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE INTERIOR WILL ALSO BE
PREVALENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND GULF OF ALASKA LOW, WITH THE HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THIS TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES, SPECIFICALLY ISABEL PASS, THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
UPPER TANANA AS SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE MAIN STORY IS THAT MANY LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND, ESPECIALLY IN
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST REGIONS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN SHIFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA WEAKENS AND EXPANDS NORTH/NORTHEAST. MID-WEEK, NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW LEVEL MIXING FROM
STRONG WINDS AND AN INCREASING DIURNAL WILL ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT
THE WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO SPRING AND BREAK UP SEASON.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ804.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ808.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-804-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-860.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815.
SRINIVASAN
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