620
FXAK69 PAFG 081243
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
443 AM AKDT WED APR 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL TODAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
IN THE YK DELTA AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. HOWEVER, A BAND OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL YUKON VALLEY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WE TURN OUR ATTENTION BACK WEST, AS
STRONG WINDS AND A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SPAN ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL SWEEP INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO BRING
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH LOWS AROUND 20 AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY PRODUCING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DEPENDING ON
ELEVATION AND TIME OF DAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALASKA RANGE.
- SOUTHERLY ALASKA RANGE GAP WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
- A FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION, LIKELY A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW, TO AREAS WEST OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY ON FRIDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FAVORED AT NIGHT AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND RAIN FAVORED FARTHER SOUTH AND AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY.
- HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 40 IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S TO LOW 30S FURTHER INLAND AS
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS RETURN.
- THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A PERIOD OF STEADY WET SNOW TO
THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY THAT TRANSITIONS TO AN ELEVATION
DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE FOR THE WEST
COAST WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 20S TO
30S ABOVE.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON
THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
- A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ARRIVES AT THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST AND
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO MAIN AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS MORNING.
THE FIRST IS A ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010MB LOW MAKING LANDFALL IN
BRISTOL BAY. THIS FEATURE HAS A WARMER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, AND AS A RESULT, WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY,
TAKING SHOWERS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE SECOND AREA OF ACTIVE
WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR, SPANNING FROM THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER TO THE
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THIS AREA IS ALMOST
ENTIRELY SNOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY SNOW. LIGHT
SHOWERS PROGRESS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE LACK OF A DEFINITE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REDUCE OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
IT ISN'T UNTIL WE SEE THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DROP SOUTH OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THAT WE SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST INTO CANADA, AND WITH IT THE
LAST REMNANTS OF SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, ANOTHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW FOR THIS FRONT WILL BE
OVER SIBERIA, BUT IMPRESSIVELY, THE SWATH OF MOISTURE IT IS
PULLING SPANS FROM THE ALEUTIANS ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTH SLOPE. A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION SWEEPS ACROSS ALASKA FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE BERING GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW OVER SIBERIA AND HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHING OVER ALASKA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ALASKA, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH SLOPE, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY GET ABOVE FREEZING.
ON FRIDAY, WE SEE A 980MB LOW HAS MADE IT NORTH OF SIBERIA. A
SWATH OF MOISTURE IS DIRECTED FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR, PRODUCING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE YK
DELTA TO THE NORTH SLOPE. THAT BAND WILL RIDE OVER A RIDGE IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA, SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LOWS WESTERLY TRAJECTORY WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING WINDS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING STRAIT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, FLOW INTO
WESTERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER LOW ARRIVES IN THE
BERING SEA, FRIDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ARRIVES IN THE BERING SEA SATURDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE LOW LOCATIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FEATURE
ADVANCING SLOWLY ALONG THE SIBERIAN COAST ON FRIDAY, THEN MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BETWEEN HAVING IT CONTINUE NORTH OR TAKE A
DETOUR THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE TWO PATHS IS THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST
COAST, WITH THE BERING PATH PRODUCING MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FARTHER INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE LOW IMPACT AND THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR AND CALM THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE INTERIOR, EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S ABOVE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL DIPPING BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. ALONG THE WEST COAST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
ABOVE FREEZING MORE REGULARLY BUT STILL REMAIN COOLER, BELOW 40F.
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
WITH THE WESTERN HALF POTENTIALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN DROPPING INTO THE TEENS FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
TROYKE
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