636
FXAK69 PAFG 091419
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
619 AM AKDT THU APR 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LARGELY DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORTLY AFTERWARDS, A NEW SYSTEM OUT IN THE BERING SEA
PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST
COAST BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST, REACHING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
BETWEEN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, WITH ONE TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A FRONT MOVING EAST INTO THE INTERIOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
INTERIOR. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AROUND ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S, AND LOWS GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK INTO THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- ADDITIONAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW TO THE
INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE LARGELY
DICTATED BY TIME OF DAY AND ELEVATION, WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND LATER TURNING TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. DUE
TO AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE WET AND DENSE IN NATURE. NEW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE TENTH
AND A QUARTER INCH.
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST COAST
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA, AND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA UP TOWARDS
POINT HOPE. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES
BEFORE QUICKLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES RISE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- MAINLY DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NORTH
SLOPE THURSDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
EASTWARD.
- SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE TODAY,
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S.
- LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT QUICKLY RETURNS TO
CLOUDY SKIES AS A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST AGAIN
FROM THE WEST COAST LATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD, ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR. AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST COAST, A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING
SETS UP BEFORE A SIBERIAN LOW PUSHES ANOTHER WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN A TENTH AND QUARTER INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO RAMP UP THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH SOUTH
OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND UP TOWARDS POINT HOPE. MINOR BLOWING
SNOW CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD LARGELY
DISSIPATE ONCE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX ARRIVES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, ANY SNOW WILL BE PRETTY WET
AND DENSE IN NATURE.
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INLAND,
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW RETURNS TO THE INTERIOR.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED, MAINLY ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW SETS UP IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE 500MB LOW. SIMILAR TO THIS LAST SYSTEM, RAIN IS
FAVORED DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, WITH SNOW FAVORED OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL BE A BIT MORE
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S AS WELL. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE AS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN/SNOW TO MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR. THE FIRST OF THESE
LOWS WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IMPACTING PARTS OF THE
YK DELTA AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD, IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN/
CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE. THE SECOND OF THESE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, AGAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT, THE CONTINUED PATTERN OF DAYTIME SHOWERS
AND OVERNIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE FIRST OF THE SYSTEMS TO BE A
BIT WEAKER AND LESS MOIST THAN THE ONES FOLLOWING IT, BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW RIGHT NOW REGARDING THE EXTENT OF IMPACTS
EXPECTED. OVERALL THOUGH, PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-808-852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ810-811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
CS
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