503
FXAK69 PAFG 101424
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
624 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
BACK TO BACK FRONTS CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND, THE BERING STRAIT, AND POINT HOPE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE BERING SEA. MINOR BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WHERE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST, BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHORT
LIVED. GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN ALASKA NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL
EVENT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE LATE THIS WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR TODAY, WITH MOSTLY RAIN FALLING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
AND WET DENSE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- A SECONDARY WAVE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RETURNS SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION FALLING SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS
WITHIN THE ALASKA RANGE. EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW BUT COULD RANGE BETWEEN 8 INCHES AND OVER 2 FEET
POSSIBLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ANY LIQUID OR
MELTING PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY FREEZE
OVERNIGHT, CREATING POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY SPOTS IN THE MORNING.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND POINT HOPE. ALTHOUGH NOT
AS STRONG AS WITH THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS COULD GUST AS
HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST COAST
BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
AND ANY SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE WET AND DENSE IN NATURE.
- TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
DURING THE DAY AND TEENS OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THESE COOLING
TEMPERATURES, THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS
SECONDARY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW. SLICK AND ICY SURFACES
MAY FORM WHERE LIQUID OR MELTING PRECIPITATION FREEZES
OVERNIGHT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT POINT HOPE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 45 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WHEN THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST, BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND
SHORT LIVED.
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES TOTAL
EXPECTED. FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS CAN REACH AS COLD AS THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS ORIGINALLY CENTERED OVER THE WEST
COAST MAKES IT WAY EAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THIS RIDGE PUSHES EAST, WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR,
WITH PARTS OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SEEING
THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, WITH WET
DENSE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL BELOW FREEZING, ANY WET OR MELTING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
DURING THE DAY HAS THE CHANCE TO REFREEZE OVERNIGHT, CREATING SOME
POTENTIAL SLICK/ICY PATCHES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, A LOW OUT IN THE
BERING SEA PUSHES A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST COAST,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE RIDGE, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW. THE GREATEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND ALONG
SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND POINT HOPE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A WEAKENED SURFACE GRADIENT, WINDS WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER THAN THEY WERE WITH THE FIRST FRONT, BUT STILL GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES.
AS THE SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
INTERIOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, YET ANOTHER WAVE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THIS TIME HOWEVER, THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SET UP RIGHT OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE ROTATES OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR, IT CREATES AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE ALASKA RANGE THAT IS REINFORCED BY A SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE RETREATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM EARLIER
THIS WEEK. THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG UPSLOPE EFFECTS ON THE
NORTHERN FACING SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE, CAUSING HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND FAIRBANKS SUNDAY AS WELL, BUT SHOULD MAINLY
STAY TO THE SOUTH OF TOWN. OVERALL, ACTIVE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOLING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
GOING INTO MONDAY, HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXACT
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW, WITH NBM PERCENTILE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 8 INCHES UP TO 40 INCHES.
DESPITE MODEL SPREAD BEING SO HIGH, CURRENT MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
FAIRLY TYPICAL HIGH SNOWFALL PATTERN FOR THE ALASKA RANGE. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR PUSHES EAST INTO CANADA
BY MIDWEEK, WIDESPREAD COOLING SPREADS OVER THE STATE, DROPPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW/MID 30S AND THE
LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THE NORTH SLOPE WILL EXPERIENCE
THE GREATEST TEMPERATURE SHIFT, WITH HIGHS DROPPING FROM THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ABOVE. TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA VIA YET ANOTHER LOW IN THE BERING SEA. SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE'S HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
RELATIVELY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ836-837-847>850.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ827.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-856-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ850-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
SANTIAGO
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