204
FXAK69 PAFG 102355
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
355 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE MUCH OF THE
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FRONT IN THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WITH MIXING
OR RAIN FAVORED IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS AND SNOW FAVORED AT
NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA THIS EVENING,
WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO
COASTAL AREAS OF WESTERN ALASKA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS IN
WESTERN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE INTERIOR, A
SIMILAR DYNAMIC WILL OCCUR WHERE RAIN IS FAVORED IN THE DAYTIME
AND SNOW IS FAVORED AT NIGHT. WHILE UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR VALLEYS, MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED, ESPECIALLY WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN PARTS OF
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE ALASKA RANGE, SNOW TOTALS FROM 6
TO 12 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SOME PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON THE NORTH SLOPE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN ARCTIC REGION, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN OR SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR TODAY, WITH MOSTLY RAIN FALLING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
AND WET DENSE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- A SECONDARY WAVE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RETURNS SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION FALLING SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS
WITHIN THE ALASKA RANGE. HIGH TOTALS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
THE ALASKA HIGHWAY BETWEEN DELTA JUNCTION AND TOK. EXACT
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW BUT COULD RANGE FROM
AROUND 6 INCHES TO OVER A FOOT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ANY
LIQUID OR MELTING PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY
FREEZE OVERNIGHT, CREATING POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY SPOTS IN THE
MORNING.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND POINT HOPE. ALTHOUGH NOT
AS STRONG AS WITH THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS COULD GUST AS
HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND ANY SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES WITH 4
TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE WET AND DENSE
IN NATURE.
- TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
DURING THE DAY AND TEENS OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THESE COOLING
TEMPERATURES, THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS
SECONDARY SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW. SLICK AND ICY SURFACES
MAY FORM WHERE LIQUID OR MELTING PRECIPITATION FREEZES
OVERNIGHT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT POINT HOPE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 45 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WHEN THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST, BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND
SHORT LIVED.
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES TOTAL
EXPECTED. FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS CAN REACH AS COLD AS THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
GENERAL TROUGHING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BERING SEA, WITH RIDGING
IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR PUSHING EASTWARD INTO CANADA. WITH A
FRONT SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY, MUCH OF THE
AREA COULD SEE RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL
NOT SEE OVER MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUBSTANTIVE ACCUMULATIONS WITH
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, UP TO A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BERING SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW
AND RAIN TO ALASKA BEGINNING IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. IT WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING, WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY WHERE IT COMBINES WITH
FALLING SNOW. IT WILL ALSO BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO COASTAL AREAS
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND ON
ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN WESTERN
ALASKA ARE LIKELY IN ELEVATED PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA AND ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
WHERE THERE IS SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN COASTAL AREAS, PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY REMAIN SNOW DUE TO GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME RAIN DURING THE WARMEST
PERIODS. IN THE INTERIOR, SNOW IS MORE LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO
RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS GIVEN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD GENERALLY SEE SNOW TOTALS OF
UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES, BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES COULD LIMIT
PHYSICAL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AREA GIVEN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
PUSH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE UP THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. UP TO 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS; POTENTIALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA HIGHWAY
BETWEEN DELTA JUNCTION AND TOK, WHERE SNOW TOTALS COULD LOCALLY
EXCEED A FOOT. IN THE ALASKA RANGE, A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT; AROUND 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH OVER A FOOT
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1500 FEET.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
BY TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST, WITH SNOW FALLING IN WESTERN ALASKA BEGINNING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH MID 30S MORE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR AND
MID TO UPPER 20S ON THE WEST COAST. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
INLAND WHERE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER, MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS, WITH SNOW FAVORED AT NIGHT. EVEN AS THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
VARIOUS MODELS SUPPORT ANOTHER STORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA, WHICH COULD YIELD EVEN MORE SNOW/RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS AND TIMING, THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY IN THE YK DELTA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ836-837-847>850.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ827.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-850-854-856-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
DS
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