808
FXAK69 PAFG 111334
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
534 AM AKDT SAT APR 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES IT WAY ACROSS THE WEST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
AND SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT UP TOWARDS POINT HOPE
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST,
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TO THE INTERIOR, WITH RAIN FAVORED DURING
THE DAY AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THIS WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH END AMOUNTS OVER ONE FOOT POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, GRADUAL COOLING
EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NORTH SLOPE
SEEING THE SHARPEST DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS
OF THE MORNING, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BETWEEN 1
TO 3 INCHES.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW BUT COULD RANGE FORM 6 INCHES TO OVER A FOOT
POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
ANY LIQUID OR MELTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FREEZE
OVERNIGHT, CREATING SLICK/ICY SPOTS IN THE MORNING.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT AND POINT HOPE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT SHOULD
DECREASE DRAMATICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE BROOKS RANGE, WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET AND DENSE IN NATURE.
- TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. SLICK AND ICY
SURFACES MAY FORM WHERE LIQUID OR MELTING PRECIPITATION FREEZES
OVERNIGHT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES. THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES TOTAL EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RAPIDLY
COOLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS CAN REACH AS COLD AS THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST.
- BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW MOVES SOUTH
FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER EASTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER
EAST INTO CANADA AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FROM
THE WEST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS FOR
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO STICK AROUND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE INTERIOR,
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT WEST BEGINS TO MAKE LANDFALL THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST. INITIALLY, WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND UP
TOWARDS POINT HOPE WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. GIVE THAT THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM IS COOLER THAN THE
FIRST, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY BE SNOW, BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH SOUTH FACING SLOPES. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 7 INCHES, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
GETS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTHEAST AS A LOW MAKES IT WAY ACROSS THE STATE
AND SETTLES OVER THE ROBERTSON RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL BRING IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A STRONG AREA
OF NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE, ALLOWING FOR UPSLOPE
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
FACING SLOPES. THERE'S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT LOW END AMOUNTS CAN RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 8
INCHES. HIGHER END AMOUNTS HAVE THE CHANCE TO PUSH UPWARDS OF OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW WHERE THE UPSLOPE EFFECTS ARE STRONGEST. SOME MINOR
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LOWER TANANA
VALLEY, BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY YIELD A FEW INCHES DUE TO WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A THIRD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA FOLLOWING A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THESE LAST SYSTEMS. WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH RAIN FAVORED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SNOW FAVORED OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE YK DELTA AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LOW, THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING IN LOTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA, KEEPING SNOW WET AND DENSE. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ARCTIC COAST SEEING
THE SHARPEST DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST COAST SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND THE MID 20S WITH THE INTERIOR SEEING TEMPERATURES COOL
INTO THE MID 30S.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA BY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE NORTHWEST
ARCTIC COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER BEHIND THE NORTH
SLOPE'S DECLINING TEMPERATURES, PULLING FROM A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WHILE
KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. THE FLOW OVER THE
REST OF THE STATE WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE WEST, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MILDLY COOL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWING A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT
WE'VE BEEN SEEING THIS PAST WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERIOR, MODELS ARE HINTING AT YET ANOTHER LOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS AND TIMING, THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
TOTALS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS AND THROUGH THE YK DELTA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ836-837-847-849.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-811-856-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
SANTIAGO
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