109
FXAK69 PAFG 121349
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
549 AM AKDT SUN APR 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. SIMILARLY TO
THE PRECEDING SYSTEMS, RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
DURING THE DAY, TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1500 FEET) CAN EXPECT TO SEE CONSISTENT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY. HIGH END SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING A FOOT ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH ADJACENT AREAS SEEING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN
6 TO 12 INCHES. TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH THE NORTH SLOPE SEEING THE SHARPEST DECLINE. OVERALL,
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TO THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN. OVERNIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE
ALASKA HIGHWAY FROM SOUTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION TO TOK, WITH 3
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING A
FOOT IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FEET. BELOW 1500 FEET,
SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED. A WINTER
STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY LIQUID OR MELTING
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FREEZE OVERNIGHT, CREATING SLUSHY OR
SLICK/ICY SPOTS IN THE MORNING.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LARGELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS, WITH LINGERING LOW STRATUS AND
FOG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
- WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. MINOR BLOWING
SNOW CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW ON THE
GROUND OR WHERE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST.
- TEMPERATURES COOL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SLICK
AND ICY SURFACES MAY FORM WHERE LIQUID OR MELTING PRECIPITATION
FREEZES OVERNIGHT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE INTO NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES. THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES TOTAL EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOL TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IS PULLED SOUTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH AS COLD
AS THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
- PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC
COAST AND POINT HOPE THIS WEEK. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH BETWEEN DEADHORSE AND KAKTOVIK, AND
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH BETWEEN POINT HOPE AND POINT LAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL ALLOW FOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER BERING SEA. THIS AREA OF
TROUGHING WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
SIMILARLY, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND TO
THESE LAST SYSTEMS, RAIN WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. IN THESE
AREAS, STRONG NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN FACING SLOPES. SNOWFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING A FOOT IS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH
ADJACENT AREAS SEEING TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 6 TO 12 INCHES.
MODERATE TO HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND WHITE MOUNTAINS, BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
UNDER A FOOT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO CANADA, YET ANOTHER THIRD
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE YK DELTA THROUGH THE
WESTERN INTERIOR, BUT COULD BRING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR VIA SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ONCE
AGAIN, ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS OVER
THE STATE AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA, WITH THE
NORTH SLOPE SEEING THE SHARPEST DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC
COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL ADVECT A COLD ARCTIC AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SET UP OVER POINT HOPE AND THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT. MINOR BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WHERE THERE
IS FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR WHERE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME AS UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE STATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
THIRD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER EAST. ONCE THIS THIRD SYSTEM
DISSIPATES AND WEAKENS GOING INTO SATURDAY, MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
POTENTIALLY BEEFY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY.
SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MATERIALIZE, IT COULD BRING A FOURTH ROUND OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND. SNOWFALL
TOTALS AND TIMING ARE STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT WILL
DEFINITELY BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE, WHILE THE
NORTH SLOPE LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CHILLY FOR THE TIME BEING.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ836-849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ837-847.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
SANTIAGO
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