523
FXAK69 PAFG 122341
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 PM AKDT SUN APR 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STORM BRINGS HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
MOSTLY BE SNOW WITH SOME PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN
POSSIBLE BELOW 1500 FEET. THE NORTH SLOPE COOLS RAPIDLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND THEN REMAINS COLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AREAS
OF FOG REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE WEST COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHTER
ACCUMULATIONS LINGERING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ABOVE 1500 FEET SNOW
TOTALS MAY EXCEED A FOOT OF FLUFFIER SNOW. BELOW 1500 FEET
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 OF DENSER, WETTER SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY FROM TOK WEST TO ISABEL PASS WITH LIGHTER
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FROM DELTA NORTH AND EAST OF TOK. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 4 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE
1500 FEET INCLUDING THE STEESE HIGHWAY NEAR EAGLE SUMMIT. NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.
- NORTHERLY WINDS GUST UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. THERE MAY BE AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY WHEN PAIRED WITH FALLING SNOW. NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ARE LOCALLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE STRONGEST GUSTS AND
HEAVIEST SNOW OVERLAP.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY LIQUID SURFACES OR MELTING
PRECIPITATION MAY FULLY OR PARTIALLY FREEZE OVERNIGHT, CREATING
SLUSHY OR SLICK SPOTS IN THE MORNING.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- NORTHERLY WINDS GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW AND FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SLICK
AND ICY SURFACES MAY FORM WHERE LIQUID OR MELTING PRECIPITATION
FREEZES OVERNIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TUESDAY
BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, SNOW, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST CONSISTENT FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH
OF HUSLIA ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE INTO NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES. TRAVEL THROUGH
ANAKTUVUK PASS OR ATIGUN PASS MAY BE SLIGHTLY IMPACTED BY LIGHT
SNOWFALL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN
COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS FALL TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH AS COLD AS THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO.
- PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
BETWEEN POINT HOPE AND POINT LAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY, A 520 DECAMETER
UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA TO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHERE IT THEN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. A SURFACE LOW
UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW ATTEMPTS TO FOLLOW IT, BUT GETS
SHREDDED APART UPON THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE BRINGING A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THAT AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. TWO NEW SURFACE LOWS FORM SHORTLY AFTERWARDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST OF THERE ON
THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER EAST OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY.
THESE TWO SYSTEM THEN WORK TO PULL A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF THESE
LOWS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE STORM. SHOULD THESE
HEAVIER BANDS FALL NEARER THE MOUNTAINS OR OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A FLUFFIER SNOW ABOVE 1500 FEET AND A
DENSER, WETTER SNOW BELOW 1500 FEET. SHOULD THESE HEAVIER BANDS
FALL DEEPER INTO THE VALLEYS AND NEARER TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING,
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS MELTING SNOW AND RAIN. EVEN
DURING THESE PERIODS THAT LIMIT SNOWFALL THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
MOISTURE WITHIN THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY LIKELY TO HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
SNOWFALL RATES TO OVERWHELM SURFACE WARMTH AND EVENTUALLY TURN
FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TO JUST SNOW. CURRENTLY THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER RAIN/SNOW LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY AND
FADING TUESDAY. THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE SNOWFALL WITH THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM ISABEL PASS TO THE
ROBERTSON RIVER. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG RIDGETOPS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY MAY ADDITIONALLY
LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING AND FALLING
SNOW, ALTHOUGH THE WETTER SNOW WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS LIKELY
TO BLOW.
THIS SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT FULLY PUSHES THE WEAK RIDGING OUT OF THE
REGION AND ALLOWS FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOW ROTATING AROUND A MUCH
LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHERN CANADA TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
NORTH SLOPE. TEMPERATURES FALL RAPIDLY AS THIS SHORTWAVE PULLS
COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH AGAINST THE BROOKS RANGE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE WEAKER NATURE OF THIS ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL
LIMIT MUCH OF THE WIND AND SNOW IMPACTS TO THE THE BROOKS RANGE
WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS NEAR THE ATIGUN AND
ANAKTUVUK PASSES.
ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA MONDAY AND A FRONT FROM IT
REACHES THE LOWER YUKON TUESDAY. THERE IS A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THIS LOW, SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN
THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE WEST
COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN, SNOW, AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, BUT WILL NOT IMPACT THE EASTERN INTERIOR NOR THE NORTH
SLOPE VERY MUCH DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY, A
LOW IN THE BERING SEA CONTINUES TO EXTEND AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
ALASKA BRINGING LIGHT RAIN, SNOW, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR. A LOW IN
NORTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PUSH COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH WHILE LOWS IN THE BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUE TO
PUSH WARMER, WETTER, AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. A PERIOD
OF RELATIVE CALM IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, BUT YET ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES THE
BERING SEA SATURDAY THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THERE
IS CURRENTLY A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW REACHES. BUILDING SURFACE PRESSURE
IN THE ARCTIC MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
YUKON AND ALASKA RANGE, BUT IF THE LOW CAN PUSH THROUGH THE HIGHER
PRESSURE, THEN ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ836-849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ837-847.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
STOKES
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