664
FXAK69 PAFG 131252
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
452 AM AKDT MON APR 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR AN
ABUNDANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVER THE PAST
12 TO 15 HOURS. THE HEAVIEST PERIODS HAVE PASSED, HOWEVER SOME
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE DAY. AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO PUSH SE, THIS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO GUST
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH THE PASSES. OVER THE WEST COAST, THE STRONGER WINDS OVER
THE BERING STRAIT SHOULD LIGHTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER DAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE YK-
DELTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AROUND THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC. THIS WILL ALSO SET UP A SEASONABLY COLDER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN
MINUS TEENS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER- LEVELS RETURN TO A
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE
EAST FROM THE BERING SEA.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHTER
ACCUMULATIONS LINGERING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MOST OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
- LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.
- NORTHERLY WINDS GUST UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. THERE MAY BE AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY WHEN PAIRED WITH FALLING SNOW. NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ARE LOCALLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE STRONGEST GUSTS AND
HEAVIEST SNOW OVERLAP.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE BERING STRAIT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. PATCHES OF
FOG AND BLOWING SNOW MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY AS
WELL.
- TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SLICK
AND ICY SURFACES MAY FORM WHERE LIQUID OR MELTING PRECIPITATION
FREEZES OVERNIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TUESDAY
BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, SNOW, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST CONSISTENT FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH
OF HUSLIA ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE INTO NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES. TRAVEL THROUGH
ANAKTUVUK PASS OR ATIGUN PASS MAY BE SLIGHTLY IMPACTED BY LIGHT
SNOWFALL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOL TODAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN
COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS FALL TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH AS COLD AS THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO.
- PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
BETWEEN POINT HOPE AND POINT LAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR BLOWING SNOW.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL 520 DECAMETER LOW THAT HAS PLANTED ITSELF
IN THE NORTHERN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW HAS
ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WRAP AROUND INTO THE INTERIOR,
RESULTING IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. LOOKING FARTHER
WEST, THE BULK OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT HAS MOVED ON. HOWEVER SOME
LOW-LYING CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF THE COAST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE SEEN ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN IN
PLACE THROUGH PARTS OF THE MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT SE
TOWARD THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. A COUPLE OF FEATURES ARE WORKING IN
TANDEM, RESULTING IN THIS MOVEMENT. FIRST OFF, AN ARCTIC LOW WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS THAT IS LOOKING TO SET UP ACROSS
THE ARCTIC PLAINS. THE OTHER FEATURE IS A RIDGE BUILDING UP OVER
THE BERING, AHEAD OF A LOW SPINNING IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING.
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW, BEHIND THE RIDGE, IS A FRONT WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE YK-DELTA AND THE INTERIOR. THE
STRONGEST N/NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, THE
BERING STRAIT, AND THE LISBURNE PENINSULA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW ARCTIC
COAST. THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC LOW MOVES. LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING ONCE IT REACHES THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GET
STRETCHED OUT ZONALLY, SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL START OFF AS SNOW, WITH
THE HELP OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SYSTEMS THIS PAST
WEEK. WHEN THE SW FLOW SETS UP, ALOFT, AROUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO RETURN TO VALLEYS BELOW
1500FT. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO MOSTLY SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SIMILARLY TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS, PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR
THIS FRONT WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
ONE OTHER PART OF THIS PATTERN THAT WILL BE MONITORED IS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY
BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS NEXT FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE WILL BE TAPPING INTO ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL POCKET OF
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. IF THE RIDGE IS ABLE THE BUILD UP
ENOUGH STRENGTH QUICK ENOUGH, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH BETTER
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MORE BENIGN PATTERN OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. HOWEVER, THE
COLD AIR BROUGHT IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS TEENS TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A STRONGER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS AND MOVE OVER THE YK-DELTA. SIMILARLY TO WHAT WAS
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION, THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE GULF/WESTERN PACIFIC WILL BE ONE OF
THE MAIN DRIVERS IN DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM IS ABLE
TO PUSH. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED FRONT TO BEGIN
TO MOVE OVER THE YK-DELTA SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
FROM THE ARCTIC WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PLACE REGARDING TIMING AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ836-849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ848-850.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ837-847.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-807-854-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
TWOMBLY
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