231
FXAK69 PAFG 132141
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
141 PM AKDT MON APR 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
SLOWLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
SO ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. SNOW WITH PERIODS OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
MOST CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION BEING FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTH. COASTAL WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. ANOTHER,
LESS CERTAIN STORM ENTERS THE BERING SEA THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHTER
ACCUMULATIONS LINGERING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. MOST
OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
- LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY NEAR EAGLE SUMMIT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.
- NORTHERLY WINDS GUST UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. THERE MAY BE AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY WHEN PAIRED WITH FALLING SNOW. NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ARE LOCALLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE STRONGEST GUSTS AND
HEAVIEST SNOW OVERLAP. WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH CONTINUE ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WINDS SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TUESDAY
BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, SNOW, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST CONSISTENT FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH
OF HUSLIA ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE INTO NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES. TRAVEL THROUGH
ANAKTUVUK PASS OR ATIGUN PASS MAY BE SLIGHTLY IMPACTED BY LIGHT
SNOWFALL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOL TODAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN
COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS FALL TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH AS COLD AS THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO.
- PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH
POSSIBLE BETWEEN POINT HOPE AND POINT LAY. PERIODS OF BLOWING
SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY, A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS
SETTLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND JUST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER EAST OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY CONTINUE TO PUSH
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ALREADY PASSED WITH MORE LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE ALASKA RANGE. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE HEAVIEST AREAS OF THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE HAS FALLEN AS SNOW AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT P-TYPE FOR THESE AREAS. FARTHER WEST, NEARER
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY, THE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN AS A LIGHT
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY.
THE TWIN LOWS WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR. A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE
A SHORTWAVE LOW ROTATING AROUND A LARGE 483 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN NORTHERN CANADA PULLS VERY COLD AIR SOUTH TO THE NORTH
SLOPE TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW (~1000 MILLIBARS) THAT ROTATES
THROUGH THE PATTERN STALLS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE
BERING SEA TUESDAY AND INSTEAD PUSHES A FRONT TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST FROM THE SOUTH THAT ALSO STALLS AGAINST THE ARCTIC AIR THAT
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. THIS STALLED FRONT QUICKLY OCCLUDES
AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING
CONSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WHICH MAY SHIFT TO RAIN DURING THE WARMER
AFTERNOONS FOR THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, PRIMARILY
FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH. SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE NORTH SLOPE, THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA, AND THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL KEEP THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN QUITE STAGNANT WITH COOLER, WETTER CONDITIONS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR AND COLD CONDITIONS REMAINING
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THE RELATIVELY
STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPING AREAS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE COLD AND
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE COOL AND DAMP BEGINS TO SHIFT.
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE PUSHES THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CAUSING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY.
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE WEAK RIDGING IS YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT ITS EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH REMAIN LESS
CERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM TAKES OVER THE PATTERN LATE SATURDAY AND WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON ITS NORTHERN EXTENT, WHICH ITSELF WILL
DEPEND ON HOW WELL THE WARMER, MORE MOIST AIR CAN DISPLACE THE
COLDER, ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
REACHES OF ALASKA. SHOULD THIS LOW REACH FURTHER NORTH IN THE
BERING SEA, THEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR. SHOULD THIS LOW REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH,
THEN IMPACTS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WEST COAST FROM THE
SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ848-850.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834-847.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ836.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-817-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-858.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ854-856.
STOKES
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