863
FXAK69 PAFG 142300
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND STRETCHES INTO THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS INITIALLY
EXPECTED TURNING INTO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WARMER AFTERNOONS.
COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. A VERY UNCERTAIN
STORM ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
- A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA, FROM NEAR EIELSON WEST TO NOME, BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH SNOW PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT AND AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOWFALL TOTALS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND. EXPECTED GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH.
- A FRONT ARRIVES ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN, SNOW, AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST
CONSISTENT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND SOUTH OF HUSLIA ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR. MOSTLY
SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY TURNING TO MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED THEREAFTER.
- PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 45 MPH POSSIBLE BETWEEN POINT HOPE AND POINT LAY.
PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
REACH AS COLD AS THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE LOW
AROUND 521 DECAMETERS PULLS COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AGAINST THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WEAK RIDGING SHIFTS FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A LOW IN THE BERING SEA STALLS WEST OF
THE RIDGE AND IS PREVENTED FROM RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
BY A STRONG 545 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN NORTHEASTERN
SIBERIA. THIS LOW, WHILE STUCK, IS STILL ABLE TO SEND A FRONT UP
THE COAST LATE TUESDAY WHICH ITSELF STALLS AGAINST THE COLDER,
ARCTIC AIRMASS WEDNESDAY. THIS STALLED FRONT BRINGS PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SOME RAIN TO THE WEST COAST, WESTERN INTERIOR, AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY.
SNOW WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT P-TYPE, BUT PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE NEXT LOW IN OUR PATTERN APPROACHES THE
BERING SEA. THIS LOW FORCES AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
EAST AS WELL, WHICH IN TURN FORCES THE STALLED BERING SEA LOW EAST
INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THE LOW LOSES ITS ORGANIZATION AND PUSHES
INTO THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR CREATING MORE WIDESPREAD,
ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT, RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALL THE WHILE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NORTH
SLOPE KEEPING THAT REGION COLD AND THEN INTERIOR AND COAST COOL.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LATE FRIDAY SHOWERY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS ANOTHER, MUCH STRONGER,
LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE TOWARDS THE
NORTH SLOPE FURTHER REINFORCING THE COLD AIR IN THAT REGION. THE
STRONGER LOW IN THE BERING SEA AND THE LARGE REGION OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL PUSH AGAINST EACH OTHER IN UNPREDICTABLE WAYS. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND EVEN LESS CERTAINTY FOR HOW IT INTERACTS.
THIS UNCERTAINTY MEANS THAT THERE IS EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THE EXACT IMPACTS FROM THE BERING SEA LOW AS IT TRIES TO APPROACH
THE WEST COAST.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTH, BUT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW AND
RAIN DEEP INTO THE INTERIOR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY, BUT THE SPEED WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW STRONG AND
CLOSE THE LOW GETS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-817-851-854-856>858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
STOKES
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