249
FXAK69 PAFG 291314
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
514 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BERING SEA LOW CENTERED BETWEEN ST. PAUL AND NUNIVAK ISLANDS
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS
FOR NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MORE
RAIN THAN SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR 3-6" OF SNOW FOR ATIGUN PASS IN THE
BROOKS RANGE. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE WEEK, THIS LOW WILL
BE PUSHED NORTH BY ANOTHER, STRONGER LOW ENTERING THE BERING SEA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST COAST, THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SEQUENCE OF LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S/50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S/30S.
- A VERY SLIGHT 1-5% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MIDDLE YUKON NORTH TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL GRAUPEL/HAIL, WITH A SYNOPTIC INCREASE IN WINDS LIKELY
ALONG THE FRONT.
- TODAY WILL TREND COOLER AND DRIER, AHEAD OF STRONG WINDS
REDEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND DELTA JUNCTION FOR
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
- A VERY SLIGHT 1-5% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MIDDLE YUKON NORTH TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL GRAUPEL/HAIL, WITH A SYNOPTIC INCREASE IN WINDS LIKELY
ALONG THE FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S ALONG THE
COAST TO 40S/50S FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 20S/30S. THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER LOW WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADIER PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE TODAY. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3" FOR THE ARCTIC
COAST/PLAINS AND 3-6" ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS
RANGE, INCLUDING ATIGUN PASS.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
- ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING AND
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY EARLY THIS WEEK AND GRADUALLY WARM
LATER IN THE WEEK, RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S FOR THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TO 20S/30S FOR THE ARCTIC
COAST AND PLAINS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS/20S TO LOW
30S FARTHER SOUTH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS WEEK. A
SLOW-MOVING BERING SEA LOW CENTERED BETWEEN ST. PAUL AND NUNIVAK
ISLAND, WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
A NEW LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DUE TO THESE LOWS BEING CLOSE TOGETHER, PRECIPITATION
FOR THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR ESPECIALLY WILL LIKELY BE
MORE STEADY IN NATURE. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL ALSO BE
TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT. LIKE YESTERDAY, THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON NORTH TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS SNOW FOR THE FIRST LOW, WITH SNOW TOTALS
RANGING FROM 3-6" FOR THE BROOKS RANGE AND 1-3" NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING FOR BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITIES FOR ATIGUN
PASS.
AS THE SECOND LOW APPROACHES FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, STEADY
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FOR THE
YK DELTA THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SEWARD
AND LISBURNE PENINSULAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE BROOKS RANGE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE
TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT, MEANING LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
SNOW. MORE ABOUT THE BACK HALF OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
DISCUSSED MORE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST SECTION.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING, ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WEAKENING OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA
AND RIDGING NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, MEANING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A NEW LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND MONDAY AND CIRCULATE THERE THROUGH ABOUT
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, OVERALL BRINGING MINIMAL IMPACTS TO NORTHERN
ALASKA AT THIS TIME.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ837-847-849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ809.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ857-858-860-861.
LEWIS
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