652
FXAK69 PAFG 292145
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BERING SEA LOW CENTERED BETWEEN ST. PAUL AND NUNIVAK ISLANDS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED IN WESTERN
ALASKA TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS, AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH ONLY
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR 3-6" OF SNOW FOR ATIGUN PASS IN
THE BROOKS RANGE.
AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE WEEK, THIS LOW WILL BE PUSHED
NORTH BY ANOTHER, STRONGER LOW ENTERING THE BERING SEA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST COAST, THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A HIGH WIND WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND
DELTA JUNCTION HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A MIX OF HIGH WIND WARNINGS
FOR THE ALASKA RANGE AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR DELTA. THIS SEQUENCE
OF LOWS ARE OVERALL EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL REGIONWIDE.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S/50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S/30S.
- A SLIGHT 5% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDDLE
YUKON NORTHEAST TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE, MODERATE
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL GRAUPEL/HAIL.
- TODAY OVERALL WILL TREND COOLER AND DRIER, AHEAD OF STRONG WINDS
REDEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE ALASKA RANGE AND A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELTA.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
- A SLIGHT 5% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDDLE
YUKON NORTHEAST TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE, MODERATE
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL GRAUPEL/HAIL.
- ANOTHER LOW WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADIER PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S ALONG THE
COAST TO 40S/50S FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 20S/30S. THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FOR ATIGUN PASS ALONG THE DALTON.
- ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING AND
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30-40 MPH FOR THE ARCTIC COAST AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE. PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY EARLY THIS WEEK AND GRADUALLY WARM
LATER IN THE WEEK, RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S FOR THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TO 20S/30S FOR THE ARCTIC
COAST AND PLAINS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS/20S TO LOW
30S FARTHER SOUTH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 516 DM LOW CENTERED OVER
THE BERING SEA WITH A 570 DM RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA NORTH INTO ALBERTA. LOOKING TO THE SOUTH, ANOTHER
525 DM LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND BERING SEA. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO NORTHERN ALASKA, WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS AND SHORTWAVES LEADING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BUILD-UPS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR EXTENDING
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, WITH A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SETUP TO
YESTERDAY FAVORING AROUND A 5% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE, MODERATE
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL GRAUPEL/HAIL. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
FROM PEDRO DOME SHOWS ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND FAIRBANKS AND AGAIN
OUT TOWARDS LIVENGOOD AND BEYOND FARTHER WEST.
AS THE SECOND LOW APPROACHES FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, STEADY
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FOR THE YK
DELTA THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SEWARD AND
LISBURNE PENINSULAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THIS MAIN, MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF STEADIER SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD IN THE BROOKS RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT, MEANING
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SNOW. MORE ABOUT THE BACK HALF OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DISCUSSED MORE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
SECTION.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING, ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WEAKENING OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA AND
RIDGING NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, MEANING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A NEW LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AROUND MONDAY AND CIRCULATE THERE THROUGH ABOUT MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
OVERALL BRINGING MINIMAL IMPACTS TO NORTHERN ALASKA AT THIS TIME.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ847-849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ809.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
SYNOPSIS.......MACKAY
KEY MESSAGES...MACKAY
SHORT TERM.....MACKAY
LONG TERM......LEWIS
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