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FXAK69 PAFG 301335
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
535 AM AKDT THU APR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WEAKENS, OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A
STRONGER LOW ENTERING THE BERING SEA TODAY FROM THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. THIS LOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST COAST, THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. HIGH WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR DELTA JUNCTION, BOTH FOR STRONG
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS SEQUENCE OF LOWS ARE OVERALL
EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL REGIONWIDE.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S/30S.
- AS THIS FIRST LOW WEAKENS, ANOTHER LOW WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN
ALASKA THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP IN THE ALASKA RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE ALASKA RANGE FOR GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH
AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR DELTA JUNCTION FOR GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- AS THIS FIRST LOW WEAKENS, ANOTHER LOW WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN
ALASKA THIS MORNING, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADIER, MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
- PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOSTLY RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
DURING THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S ALONG THE COAST
TO 40S/50S FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 20S/30S. THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 30 MPH.
- ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING AND
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30-40 MPH FOR
THE ARCTIC COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE. PATCHY
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK,
RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S FOR THE BROOKS RANGE AND WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST TO 20S/30S FOR THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAINS. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS/20S TO LOW 30S FARTHER SOUTH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS WEEK. A
SLOW-MOVING BERING SEA LOW CENTERED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A
NEW LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. DUE TO
THESE LOWS BEING CLOSE TOGETHER, PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR ESPECIALLY WILL LIKELY BE MORE STEADY IN
NATURE. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL ALSO BE TEMPERATURE
DEPENDENT. THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO RECEIVE LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY DUE TO A
DISSIPATING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW.
AS THE SECOND LOW APPROACHES FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, STEADY
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FOR THE YK
DELTA THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SEWARD AND
LISBURNE PENINSULAS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUOUS
SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE CONSISTENT FORCING WITH THIS LOW, LEADING TO
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST COAST,
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THIS
MAIN, MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF STEADIER SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE BROOKS RANGE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE TEMPERATURE
DEPENDENT, MEANING LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SNOW. MORE SNOW THEN
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SUN SETS AND TEMPERATURES
DROP. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR DELTA JUNCTION HAVE BEEN
ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING, ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WEAKENING OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ALASKA AND RIDGING NEAR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AND REMAIN OVER THE CHUCKCHI SEA AND EXTEND OVER THE NORTH SLOPE,
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN
ALASKA UNTIL A NEW LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SHIFTS NORTHWARD AROUND
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, COMBINING WITH THE TROUGH ON THE NORTH SLOPE TO
CREATE TROUGHING OVER ALL OF ALASKA BY MID-WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENTS WITH HOW STRONG THE TROUGHING IS, WHICH CAN EFFECT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TIMING AND LOCATION. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES, THE WEATHER GENERALLY SEEMS TO BE UNIMPACTFUL.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ847-849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-808.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ852-855.
LEWIS
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