985
FXAK69 PAFG 302304
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
304 PM AKDT THU APR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE. A LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH OVER ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND
BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW UP THE WEST COAST AS IT PROGRESSES.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING UP AND OVER A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS MAY RESULT IN
WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AROUND NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER, THE POSITIONING
OF THE LOW IN THE NW ARCTIC MAY ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES LATE TONIGHT AS A HIGH WIND WARNING GOES
INTO EFFECT. WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE PASSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 70 TO 75 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY EVENING.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR DELTA JUNCTION AT THE
SAME TIME, WITH EXPECTED GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH.
- SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S/30S.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOSTLY RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND DURING THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S ALONG THE
COAST TO 40S/50S FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS AROUND 30.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30 MPH.
- ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE BY THIS EVENING, SPREADING EASTWARD BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35-45 MPH FOR THE ARCTIC COAST
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE. PATCHY AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS
WEEK, RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S FOR THE BROOKS RANGE AND
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TO 20S/30S FOR THE ARCTIC COAST AND
PLAINS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS/20S TO LOW 30S FARTHER
SOUTH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AS PERSISTENCE CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG. A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE BERING FROM THE
CHUKCHI TO SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE, A SUBTLE RIDGE IS SET
UP OVER THE AL-CAN BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH N/NE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SETS UP BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, SUITABLE FOR WET CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEST COAST AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITS OVER ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH, JUST PAST THE BERING
STRAIT BEFORE STALLING OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SETTING UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES. WITH THE S/SW ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND THE
TIGHT GRADIENT PORTRAYED BY NUMEROUS MODELS, CONFIDENCE FOR
WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHER FOR ISABEL PASS THAN WINDY PASS. AS
THE SHORTWAVE REACHES THE BROOKS RANGE AROUND SATURDAY, IT WILL
BECOME SHREDDED AS THE SOME OF THE ENERGY CONTINUES TO RIDE OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS AND SOME GETS WRAPPED INTO THE LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE BERING STRAIT. WITH THE POSITIONING OF THIS LOW, A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, BY
SATURDAY, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND MOVES OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST
COAST, EVENTUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS IT WILL HAVE TO PUNCH THROUGH A
VERY DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE, THAT WAS SET UP BY THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY, PORTIONS OF THE
ARCTIC PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. HOWEVER, SOME OF
THE MOISTURE WILL REACH THE ARCTIC COAST BRINGING THEIR NEXT CHANCE
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE, THE DOWNSLOPING MAY PRODUCE A WARM NOSE AT THE MID-
LEVELS. THIS BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE LOW, PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT, WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE N/NE AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WESTERN BERING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE COOLER UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LOOK FAIRLY BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING RIDGING CONTINUING
OVER THE MUSH OF THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA, WITH SOME OF IT
STRETCHING UP THE AL-CAN BORDER. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER LOW TO MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF AND COMING ACROSS
THE ALASKA RANGE, SIMILARLY TO THE PATTERN THAT IS SEEN IN THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, THE EC SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING MUCH WEAKER WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO MOVE
FARTHER EAST AS IT RIDES OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD
NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALAKSA
RANGE. IF THE GAP WINDS WERE TO OCCUR, THE CURRENT TIME FRAME FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
LOOKING BACK OVER THE NW ARCTIC COAST, MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WHEN IT COMES TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE INTO HOW WELL THE SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION
SETS UP OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN BERING.
WITH A BUNCH OF MOVING PARTS AND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS BEING SEEN
AMONGST MODELS, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL COUPLE OF DAYS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ847-849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-812-857-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-814-859-860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
TWOMBLY
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