575
FXAK69 PAFG 011038
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
AS A LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES NORTH OVER ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND,
IT WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SEWARD AND LISBURNE
PENINSULAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ALSO AT THIS TIME, ANOTHER LOW
IN THE BERING SEA WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE YK DELTA.
THIS LOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WEST COAST, THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH WIND WARNINGS
CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH ALASKA RANGE
PASSES AND A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR DELTA JUNCTION, BOTH FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS SEQUENCE OF LOWS ARE
OVERALL EXPECTED TO KEEP THE INTERIOR'S TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE MAY EXPERIENCE COOLER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH ALREADY
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE PASSES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS 75 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY EVENING. A WIND
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR DELTA JUNCTION FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD, WITH EXPECTED GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH.
- SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S/30S.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WILL BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. AREAS AROUND THE ALASKA RANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRIER.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MOSTLY RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND DURING THE DAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE NULATO HILLS AND THE HILLS
NORTH OF NOME.
- GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S ALONG THE
COAST TO 40S/50S FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS AROUND 30.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- ANOTHER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE, SPREADING EASTWARD BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35-45 MPH FOR THE ARCTIC COAST
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE. PATCHY AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS
WEEK, RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S FOR THE BROOKS RANGE AND
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TO 20S/30S FOR THE ARCTIC COAST AND
PLAINS. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS/20S TO LOW 30S FARTHER
SOUTH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR THE AL-CAN BORDER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FOR THE ALASKA
RANGE, LEADING TO WARNING LEVEL, AS HIGH AS 75 MPH, WIND GUSTS
FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. A LOW CENTERED NEAR THE BERING STRAIT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS LOW REMAINS
NEAR THE BERING STRAIT, IT WILL CIRCULATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH SLOPE.
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR ESPECIALLY
WILL LIKELY BE MORE STEADY IN NATURE. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH
THIS LOW WILL ALSO BE TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY FOR THE NULATO HILLS AND THE HILLS NORTH OF NOME.
AS THE SECOND LOW APPROACHES THE YK DELTA, STEADY SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO CONSTANT SHORTWAVES PROVIDING
CONSISTENT FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE WEST COAST.
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THIS MAIN, MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF STEADIER
SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE BROOKS
RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY TO
BE TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT, MEANING LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
SNOW. MORE SNOW THEN RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SUN SETS AND TEMPERATURES DROP. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE INTERIOR LIKELY BEING ON
SATURDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING, DUE TO A LOW IN
THE CHUKCHI SEA, OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA AND
RIDGING NEAR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NW ARCTIC
COAST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA UNTIL A NEW LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
SHIFTS NORTHWARD AROUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO COMBINE WITH THE TROUGH ON THE NORTH SLOPE TO CREATE TROUGHING
OVER ALL OF ALASKA BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENTS WITH HOW STRONG THE LOW COMING FROM
THE GULF IS, WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER SOLUTION COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF. SHOULD THE STRONGER SOLUTION PAN OUT, MORE INTENSE
PRECIPITATION AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY COMPARED TO A
WEAKER SOLUTION. THE GFS ALSO HAS THE TROUGH WEAKENING AND
LETTING A RIDGE BUILD IN OVER THE STATE BY THURSDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH PERSISTING AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE TROUGH
PERSIST, SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE MORE LIKELY COMPARED TO IF A
RIDGE BUILDS IN.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ847-849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815-858-860-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
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