454
FXAK69 PAFG 021410
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
610 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE WEST COAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY
IMPACTS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHEASTERN ARCTIC
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS IN A
COLD AIRMASS FROM SIBERIA. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONABLE NORMS. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS STILL MAY
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE LARGELY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
FAIRBANKS WITHIN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES MAY
BRIEFLY COOL LATER THIS WEEK AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAVORED
DURING THE DAY WITH SNOW FAVORED OVERNIGHT AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NULATO HILLS AND THE HILLS NORTH OF NOME.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST TO THE LOW 40S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE LOW 20S/30S THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WINDS HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY DECREASING AT POINT LAY THROUGH THE
NIGHT, BUT PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND 1.5 MILES MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
- ANOTHER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE, SPREADING EASTWARD EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS DECREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY COOL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A COLD AIRMASS
IS PULLED IN FROM SIBERIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S
ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE.
LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH
SLOPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER EASTERN ALASKA AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP ALONG THE WEST COAST BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE ARCTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO
COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE AS THE LOW
SITTING IN THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST PULLS IN A COLDER AIRMASS EAST
FROM SIBERIA. MOST OF THE INTERIOR WILL STAY AROUND SEASONABLE NORMS
WHILE THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST COAST CAN EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH THROUGH
THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP NEAR
DEADHORSE/NUIQSUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE UNLIKELY. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE BROOKS RANGE AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500
FEET.
WE FINALLY START TO SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ONCE A
LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT, PUSHING THAT
AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN YUKON.
THIS SHIFT CREATES A SORT OF "PRESSURE SANDWICH" WITH BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING OVER THE STATE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND WEST. DESPITE THE SHIFT HOWEVER,
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH THIS, WINDS THROUGH THE ALAKSA RANGE PASSES AND UP TO
DELTA JUNCTION ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS TO AROUND 3 MB.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
ARCTIC COAST THIS MORNING AS VISIBILITIES IMPROVE.
BY TUESDAY, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, BRINGING ANOTHER
WAVE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN ALASKA. CHINOOKING WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW,
WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION COINCIDING WITH A SWATH OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING NORTH, ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE. WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE
THIS SYSTEM BRING HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST FROM NUIQSUT TO KAKTOVIK.
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS REMAIN LOW GOING INTO MIDWEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AT THE UPPER LEVELS, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
LOOKS TO ULTIMATELY PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE
NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST, FURTHER PUSHING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EAST
ONCE AGAIN INTO CANADA. THIS SETS UP A SIMILAR "PRESSURE SANDWICH"
TYPE PATTERN AT THE UPPER LEVELS KEEPING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONSISTENT INTO NEXT WEEK. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
DISCUSSION, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL BRING MORE RAIN/SNOW TO NORTHERN ALASKA BY MIDWEEK, WITH
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE/ARCTIC COAST. ONCE THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA, MODELS ARE HINTING AT YET ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH VERY MOIST, DOESN'T
LOOK TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL FOR OUR AREA AS OF RIGHT NOW, WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE INTERIOR DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A RETURN OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND HINTS AT A WIDESPREAD
WARMUP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA, BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE PATH AND BREAKDOWN OF THIS GULF LOW. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, BUT LEANS MORE TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-815-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860-861.
SANTIAGO
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