704
FXAK69 PAFG 022220
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 PM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THIS WEEKEND UNTIL A LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE AK PENINSULA ON MONDAY. A WEAK COOL
FRONT SHIFTED EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR LAST NIGHT AND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF INTERIOR NORTHERN ALASKA IS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS
WITHIN A WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 20S BEHIND
THE WEST COAST COLD FRONT THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO,
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A DIURNAL UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WEST COAST COLD FRONT AND BROOKS RANGE AS CAN
BE SEEN ON SATELLITE. WHILE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY,
A GENERAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR INCLUDING EAGLE PASS
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
- SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS ON MONDAY.
- HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A COLD FRONT FOCUSES MAINLY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE ~1500 FT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
YUKON RIVER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS BY
SUNDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 30S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE 40S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE
SEWARD PEN AND KOTZEBUE SOUND TO THE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH
SUNDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FOR THE
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE MONDAY EVENING THAT SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE ON TUESDAY.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS EAST TO THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE FRONT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
EAST OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES APPROACH 30 EAST OF THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (525 DM ALOFT AND
999 MB AT THE SURFACE) OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA IS THE PRIMARY FEATURE
CONTROLLING OUR GENERALLY LOW-IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. RIDGING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS SIMILARLY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH 576 DM RIDGING ALOFT AND 1026 MB RIDGING AT THE SURFACE.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTED EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
MORNING AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF INTERIOR ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED IN MANY PLACES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PEAK GUSTS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING DIMINISHES. THE PRIMARY EXCEPTIONS TO
THAT WILL BE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RIDGES SUCH AS EAGLE PASS ALONG THE
STEESE HIGHWAY AND THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THAT WILL DIMINISH
MORE GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE POTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS PUSHING EAST ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT IS FOCUSING A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND POST-FRONTAL
LIGHT SNOW AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS AND LOCALLY EVEN SINGLE DIGITS. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRUGGLES TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND MAINLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE/ARCTIC SLOPE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING ON MONDAY.
SOMEWHAT MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A ~990 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
RESULTS IN A STRENGTHENING BAND OF FRONTOGENIC PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
TRACKING OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA BY WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
FALLS AS RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT LIGHT LOW-ELEVATION SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR. MORE IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BROOKS RANGE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - ESPECIALLY ABOVE
ABOUT 2000 FT ELEVATION, INCLUDING ATIGUN PASS - WHEN 4-8 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO FOCUSING PRECIPITATION, THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATES A LATE SEASON WINTER AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPS APPROACHING -15C FROM AN EARLY SPRING AIR MASS WITH 850 TEMPS
APPROACHING +10C. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOW TRACK, THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES BUT THE
DURATION WOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT AT AROUND 12 HOURS.
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER EASTERN ALASKA AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP ALONG THE WEST COAST BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE ARCTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO
COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE AS THE LOW
SITTING IN THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST PULLS IN A COLDER AIRMASS EAST
FROM SIBERIA. MOST OF THE INTERIOR WILL STAY AROUND SEASONABLE NORMS
WHILE THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST COAST CAN EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH THROUGH
THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP NEAR
DEADHORSE/NUIQSUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE UNLIKELY. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE BROOKS RANGE AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500
FEET.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA. AS THIS LOW TRACKS FROM THE INTERIOR TO THE
BEAUFORT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IT DRIVES A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE. THE COMBINATION OF FRESHLY
FALLEN SNOW, RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES, AND A POTENTIAL BARRIER
JET DEVELOPING SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS BETWEEN
DEADHORSE AND KAKTOVIK ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN/SNOW CHANCES TO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONTS EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD FOCUS
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT (SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR) LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF
LIGHTNING, BUT THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO STAY IN CANADA WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATER. THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTS
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, BUT THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T APPEAR TO TRACK AS FAR
NORTH RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A DRYING TREND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860-861.
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