078
FXAK69 PAFG 031257
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
457 AM AKDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE, AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THIS LOW WILL WORK TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS IT PULLS IN COLDER AIR EAST FROM SIBERIA. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RETURNS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ALASKAN
PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AS THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR. OTHERWISE, COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 35 TO
45 MPH RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES BY TUESDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY BEFORE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER SETTLES IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S BY MIDWEEK.
SIMILARLY, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL INTO THE LOW 30S
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FROST
TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW BEING THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASED
SOLAR HEATING DURING THE DAY MELTING ANY LIGHT SNOW LEFT ON THE
GROUND BY MORNING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE LOW 40S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND THE LOW
20S ACROSS THE SEWARD PEN AND KOTZEBUE SOUND TO THE LOW 30S
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE
THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE MONDAY EVENING BEFORE SPREADING
FURTHER INTO THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST, MAINLY FROM NUIQSUT TO
KAKTOVIK.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
ATIGUN PASS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT FROM NUIQSUT TO
KAKTOVIK ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE THERE IS FRESH AND/OR FALLING SNOW.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SIT IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WHILE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR. WITH THIS
SET UP, BROAD-SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE STATE.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE.
SIMILARLY, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL
HELP TO REINFORCE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND NORTH
SLOPE AS THE LOW PULLS IN A COLD AIRMASS EAST FROM SIBERIA. WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE SNOW WITH SOME VALLEY/LOW-LYING AREAS SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR CAN EXPECT
TO REMAIN DRIER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO ENTER THE ALASKAN PENINSULA AND BRINGS
WITH IT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ALASKA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR
CAUSING A SERIES OF NOTABLE EVENTS. WE FIRST SEE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH, A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP FROM THE WESTERN INTERIOR UP THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN ARCTIC
COAST WITH A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST ORIENTATION. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE AND ALASKA RANGE,
WITH ATIGUN PASS SEEING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH,
THERE'S A CHANCE FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM
NUIQSUT TO KAKTOVIK WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW AND/OR FALLING SNOW
PRESENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE COAST WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE CLOSER TO KAKTOVIK.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY
ELEVATION AND TIME OF DAY. LOW-LYING VALLEY AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO TURN TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE BROOKS RANGE ARE FAVORED AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH BY TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES ARE LOW (<5%), IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE ADVANCING FRONT
PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT NECESSARY FOR EXTREMELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BEAUFORT
SEA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE ARCTIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN BEHIND
THIS LOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA. THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO SETTLE
IN, BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS AGAIN. A
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN OCCURS WHEN YET ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND PHASES WITH A LOW OUT IN THE BERING SEA.
DIFFERENTLY FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS HOWEVER, THE PHASING OF THESE LOWS
REMAINS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST, REINFORCING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR DRY AND
WARM GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS TAKE HOLD.
MODELS GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ857-858.
SANTIAGO
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