845
FXAK69 PAFG 032353
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
353 PM AKDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL COME WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
LOW PUSHES INLAND, IT WILL BRING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. IT WILL
CONVERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN ALASKA AND BECOME
STATIONARY, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE AND RAIN/RAIN SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ON THE EAST SIDE. SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, INCLUDING THE ALASKA AND
BROOKS RANGES. IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, SOME OF
WHICH MAY SPILL INTO THE SOUTHERN ARCTIC PLAIN AS WELL. MUCH OF
THE NORTH SLOPE / ARCTIC COAST WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW, BUT A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NEAR
UTQIAGVIK TO WEST OF NUIQSUT COULD POTENTIALLY SEE UP TO FOUR TO
SIX INCHES. ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST, GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY MIDWEEK, AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE
WINDS COMBINE WITH FRESH AND/OR FALLING SNOW. COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR/WEST COAST MIDWEEK, WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH WILL PICK UP THROUGH
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TUESDAY MORNING.
- SPARSE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
BRING LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN TO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S BY MIDWEEK.
SIMILARLY, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL INTO THE LOW 30S
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FROST
TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT COULD BE LIMITED BY DAYTIME HEATING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE LOW 40S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND THE LOW
20S ACROSS THE SEWARD PEN AND KOTZEBUE SOUND TO THE LOW 30S
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE CONTINUE, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THESE AREAS MONDAY EVENING BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST, MAINLY FROM NUIQSUT TO KAKTOVIK.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
ATIGUN PASS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT FROM NUIQSUT TO
KAKTOVIK ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE THERE IS FRESH AND/OR FALLING SNOW.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TO START OUT THE WEEK, A ~524 DM TROUGH ALOFT AT THE 500 MB LEVEL
IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA, WITH GENERAL RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND. SOME LIGHT
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ARE NOT LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS NOR LAST LONG
FOR AREAS THEY AFFECT (MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN). TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 50S IN MANY/MOST CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR VALLEYS,
WHICH WILL BE THE GENERAL TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF A
COOLDOWN WEDNESDAY. A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH A LEADING WARM FRONT PUSHING A WARMER AND MOISTER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE INTERIOR. AS THIS OCCURS,
WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES FROM MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF ISABEL PASS (WITH WEAKER BUT STILL ELEVATED
WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH WINDY PASS).
AS THE WARM FRONT (AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT) MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR, PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN A
BAND EXTENDING FROM THE SLOPES OF THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. BY MID-
MONDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL MEET UP WITH A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN
ALASKA, REINFORCING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. TUESDAY MORNING
INTO WEDNESDAY, THIS BAND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/UPPER TANANA VALLEYS AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE REMNANT OF THE PREEXISTING LOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR INTO NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. IN MOST OF THE INTERIOR, RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE
FAVORED GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES, BUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES) SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE NOW-
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE COLDER AIR, WHICH COULD AFFECT PARTS OF
THE WESTERN INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THIS BAND (BOTH SIDES) COULD WIDELY
RANGE FROM 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES. IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN NORTH SLOPE, SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AND
SNOW TOTALS COULD EXCEED SIX INCHES.
ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW, BUT CERTAINTY IS MUCH LOWER THAN IN THE BROOKS
RANGE. WHILE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THESE AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND IT, BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THESE AREAS RECEIVING FRESH SNOW
AND COULD BE LIMITED IF IT REMAINS DRY. FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE CENTRAL/
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST, AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN
MOST AREAS. THE HIGHEST TOTALS OF AROUND FOUR TO SIX INCHES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR EAST OF UTQIAGVIK AND AREAS SOUTH.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME ON WEDNESDAY, SNOW
WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALASKA
RANGE AND ON THE NORTH SLOPE. ON THE ARCTIC COAST, MOST AREAS
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THROUGH
THE FRIDAY, BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF UTQIAGVIK COULD SEE FOUR TO
SIX INCHES. TROUGHING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY,
AFTER WHICH UNCERTAINTY BECOMES MUCH HIGHER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH GRADUAL WARMING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT EXITS THE AREA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-858.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ812.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ858.
DS
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