280
FXAK69 PAFG 041305
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
505 AM AKDT MON MAY 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER STARTS OFF THE DAY BEFORE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH POSSIBLE. AS THIS FRONT
PUSHES NORTH, WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA FROM MCGRATH UP TOWARDS NUIQSUT. SNOW WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE, ALASKA RANGE,
AND NEAR UTQIAGVIK THROUGH MIDWEEK. PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WHERE FALLING AND/OR FRESH
SNOW IS PRESENT. LATER IN THE WEEK, COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE STATE WITH LOWS HOVERING AT OR BELOW FREEZING GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH BEFORE
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE FAVORED DURING THE DAY WITH SNOW
FAVORED OVERNIGHT AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MINIMAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, WITH
SOME ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S BY MIDWEEK.
SIMILARLY, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL INTO THE LOW 30S
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FROST
TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR. SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT, WITH RAIN TO THE
EAST OF THE FRONT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT COULD BE LIMITED BY DAYTIME
HEATING.
- BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN GOING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE LOW 40S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE SEWARD PEN AND KOTZEBUE SOUND TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SNOW SHOWERS RETURN TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH UTQIAGVIK BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH ATIGUN PASS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT FROM NUIQSUT
TO KAKTOVIK ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO
DEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE THERE IS FRESH AND/OR
FALLING SNOW.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS IN THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD RIDGING STILL IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE PATTERN
QUICKLY STARTS TO CHANGE HOWEVER AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THIS LOW MOVES NORTHWARD, A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW ADVECTS WARM
MOIST AIR INTO NORTHERN ALASKA CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WARM FRONT WILL HAVE A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION STARTING IN MCGRATH AND UP TOWARDS NUIQSUT.
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR ISABEL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH, IT MEETS UP WITH AN
EXISTING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER
THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE, ESPECIALLY AT ATIGUN PASS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY BOTH DIURNAL TRENDS AND
POSITION IN REGARDS TO THE BOUNDARY. FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE
STALLED FRONT, SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH
LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WHERE THE GROUND IS WARMER. FOR AREAS
TO THE EAST OF THE STALLED FRONT, RAIN WILL BE FAVORED DURING THE
DAY WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MINIMAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR WITH AROUND 1 TO
3 INCHES POSSIBLE WEST OF TANANA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE, ALASKA RANGE, AND NEAR UTQIAGVIK.
THERE'S A POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST FROM NUIQSUT TO KAKTOVIK BEGINNING TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH
SNOW ON THE GROUND. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY COOL
ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST OVER THE LAST WEEK, PROLONGED DAYLIGHT HOURS
MAY LIMIT IMPACTS. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES ARE LOW (<5%),
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE FORTYMILE
COUNTRY AS THE ADVANCING LOW CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE INTERIOR AND UP TOWARDS THE BEAUFORT SEA. TEMPERATURES WILL
FURTHER COOL ACROSS THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH NOT SUPER IMPACTFUL, FROST MAY DEVELOP ON
VEHICLES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND POSE A THREAT TO ANYONE
GETTING A HEAD START ON THEIR GARDENS THIS YEAR.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SITS THE STATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING
FILLS IN BEHIND A SURFACE LOW EXITING INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA. THIS
UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURROUNDS THE STATE TO THE WEST,
EAST, AND SOUTH. A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS SUNDAY WHEN
TROUGHING BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND PHASES WITH THE BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE STATE, USHERING IN A RETURN OF
WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, YET ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA, CREATING A BROAD AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE STATE. THIS NEW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THESE SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME POTENTIALLY WET SNOW TO FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR NOW. OVERALL, MOSTLY
UNIMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
SANTIAGO
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