623
FXAK69 PAFG 231318
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
518 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, TODAY, ALLOWING SCATTERED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY UP THE ALEUTIANS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING THE GUSTY EAST/NORTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AROUND BRISTOL BAY, SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND,
AROUND 30% IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY AND
SUNDAY.
- SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH.
- STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECT ALONG THE DALTON HWY SUMMITS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY, SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- DAILY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
- A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
- GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE WEST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
- STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THE
CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE, FOR THE NORTHERN SLOPE WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. A GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND LOW 40S FOR THE NORTHERN SLOPES.
- EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGES MADE SINCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE MAIN PATTERN DRIVER IS A LOW THAT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN OVER BRISTOL BAY. THIS IS WHAT HELPED WEAKEN THE GRADIENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, TODAY. A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING WESTERLY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA, MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE LOW WILL PLAY A LARGER ROLE ON SUNDAY. WITH ITS
WESTERLY PROGRESSION, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR E/SE FLOW, ALOFT, TO MOVE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, FROM THE YUKON. MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AS SOME OF THE
LINGERING ENERGY, FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
SE INTERIOR, MOVES BACK ACROSS THE STATE FROM CANADA. ADDITIONALLY,
THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A THERMAL TROUGH TO SETTLE IN UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY
AND SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ALL OF THESE COMPONENTS
WILL WORK TOGETHER TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
A SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING UP OVER THE
ALEUTIANS, BEHIND THE LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF ALAKSA, BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE LOW THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY OVER BRISTOL BAY TO DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER OCCLUDED LOW WILL BE MOVING
UP THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY, SETTING UP AROUND BRISTOL BAY ONCE AGAIN.
WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING UNDER THE RIDGE OVER
THE ARCTIC, THIS LOW MOVING UP WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND INCREASE THE EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS NEXT LOW ESSENTIALLY REPLACING THE PREVIOUS
ONE, THE OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL AND MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
THERMAL TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA THIS WEEKEND AND
FOCUSES DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARD AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP BERING SEA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR A BROAD SWATH
OF WETTING RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HEALY TO SALCHA TO
CHICKEN ON SUNDAY. DRY EAST-NORTHEAST DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR ON SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE INTERIOR WHILE INCREASING ON MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RH
VALUES BELOW 25% COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS >15MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE YUKON FLATS ON MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO STAY IN THE MID-60S OR WELL BELOW THE 75F THRESHOLD FOR RFW. THIS
LOW ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS TO THE ISABEL PASS AND
DELTA JUNCTION AREA STARTING ON TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER: THE ICE JAM DOWNRIVER FROM HOLY CROSS RELEASED
TUESDAY EVENING, ALLOWING WATER LEVELS TO DROP SEVERAL FEET.
DOWNRIVER, THIS HAS RESULTED IN WATER LEVELS RISING IN RUSSIAN
MISSION. MINOR FLOODING WAS OBSERVED DURING AN OVERFLIGHT. RISING
WATER LEVELS AND MINOR FLOODING WERE REPORTED AT MARSHALL ON
FRIDAY. THE YUKON RIVER BREAKUP FRONT IS LIKELY ALONG THE STRETCH
FROM PILOT STATION TO MOUNTAIN VILLAGE AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
REPORTS WERE RECEIVED OF MINOR FLOODING AT MARSHALL AND MOVING ICE
AT MOUNTAIN VILLAGE. REPORTS WERE ALSO RECEIVED, FRIDAY NIGHT, OF
ICE SHIFTING NEAR EMMONAK.
THE SURGE OF WATER FROM THE HOLY CROSS ICE JAM WILL INCREASE ICE
JAM AND FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR MARSHALL, PILOT STATION, ST.
MARY'S, AND MOUNTAIN VILLAGE. WITH THAT SAID, A SERIES OF FLOOD
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FURTHER DOWNRIVER TO THE YK-
DELTA COAST.
INNOKO: REPORTS FROM SHAGELUK INDICATE THAT THE INNOKO RIVER HAS
BEGUN TO BACKUP DUE TO HIGH WATER IN THE AREA. CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
CHENA: THE CHENA RIVER CONTINUES TO RESPOND TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWMELT LEADING TO RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN
NORMAL, BUT LIKELY REMAINING BELOW ACTION STAGE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVED FLOODING TO LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MONDAY, WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND COULD LAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ARCTIC
AND A LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BE LIKELY ON THE WEST COAST AND EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PROMINENT/EXPOSED COASTAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND ON THE THE WESTERN TIP OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA, WITH
WEAKER WINDS MOVING INLAND. FARTHER INLAND, THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE IN ELEVATED AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL YIELD GAP WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES WHICH COULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BERING SEA LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY, BY WHICH TIME ITS REMNANTS WILL HAVE DRIFTED
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. INTERIOR WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR EACH DAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ825-826.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
TWOMBLY
KUTTA - FIRE WX
SALTZMAN - EXTENDED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page