630
FXAK69 PAFG 232223
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY AND STORMY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IMPACT THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST
AND MAY LAST INTO SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEES
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
ALTHOUGH LESS FREQUENT THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SHOWERY AND STORMY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS (30%) ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
MPH FOR MOST AREAS. STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR DELTA JUNCTION ARE
POSSIBLE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK. CHANCES ARE HIGHEST (15%) SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST,
ESPECIALLY NEAR KOTZEBUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. DENSE FOG REMAINS
A THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT TO THE LISBURNE PENINSULA WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THE
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE, FOR THE ARCTIC COAST EAST OF POINT
BARROW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR THE NORTHERN
BROOKS RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN
BROOKS RANGE.
- EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF POINT BARROW AND UP TO
40 MPH WEST OF WAINWRIGHT.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING, THE PATTERN
IS DOMINATED BY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA CENTERED ON
A WEAKENING STACKED LOW OVER THE YK DELTA. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE GULF OF ALASKA AND STRENGTHENS
SATURDAY EVENING, THUS BECOMING THE DOMINANT LOW IN THE PATTERN.
THIS NEW LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DEEPENS THE TROUGH AND ALLOWS
IT TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND DRAG WHAT REMAINS OF THE YK DELTA LOW
WITH IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT PULLS AREAS OF
INCREASED VORTICITY TOWARDS IT FROM CANADA WHICH, ALONG WITH A
SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY, WILL ALLOW FOR A
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO WASH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, BUT MOST LIKELY ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BORDER NORTH OF
THE ALASKA HIGHWAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
DUE TO LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE WET, BUT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE
MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY VALLEYS WILL BEGIN TO SEE RAIN. VIRGA
IS THEREFORE LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
SUNDAY SEES THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE GULF COMPLETELY TAKE OVER
AND CONTINUE ITS MARCH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE EXPANDS AND STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARDS THE BERING SEA YET AGAIN, BUT WILL NOT
REACH THE EASTERN BERING SEA UNTIL MONDAY. AS PRESSURE INCREASES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THESE LOWS MOVE SHOWERY/STORMY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST. VALLEYS WILL STILL HAVE A LARGE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, BUT THIS PRESENTS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE THE
TREELINE. BY MONDAY THE GULF LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER AND THE NEW BERING SEA
LOW WILL TAKE OVER. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THEREFORE
CAN STRETCH ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE MORE BRINGING CHANCES BACK TO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST STORM MOTION IS
STILL EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN KEEPING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
BY TUESDAY THE LOW IN THE BERING WILL HAVE REACHED BRISTOL BAY AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REACH A PEAK. STRONG
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY GAP FLOW RETURNS ONCE MORE TO THE ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE BERING SEA REFUSE TO GIVE HIGH
PRESSURE A FOOTHOLD OVER ALASKA, STAVING OFF ANY PARTICULARLY HOT
AND DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK. EXPECT STEADY
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS A RESULT. THE WEAK RIDGE
THAT EXISTS OVER CANADA WILL BE ERODED OVER THE WEEKEND BY A MESS
OF SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND A MAIN LOW SITUATED OVER THE YK
DELTA. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
INTERIOR, INCLUDING GOOD CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOST AREAS IN THE INTERIOR WILL
HAVE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (~15%) AS THERMAL TROUGHS
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (~30%) IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER FROM FORTYMILE COUNTRY TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE,
AND WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BROOKS RANGE INTO THE
KOBUK VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING. SIMILAR PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR THE
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING TERRAIN ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY, THE MAIN LOW FOLLOWS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR, BUT ALSO SLIGHTLY IN THE REST OF THE INTERIOR.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN MORE ON MONDAY AS NEW LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN REGIONS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE INTERIOR WILL SEE GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE NEW
LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO BRISTOL BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING, SOUTHERLY GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WILL STRENGTHEN, WHICH WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS INTO THE TANANA
VALLEY, COULD RESULT IN NEAR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS AROUND
DELTA JUNCTION ON TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER: THE ICE JAM DOWNRIVER FROM HOLY CROSS RELEASED
THURSDAY EVENING. WATER LEVELS IN HOLY CROSS FELL SEVERAL FEET.
DOWNRIVER AT RUSSIAN MISSION WATER LEVELS STARTED RISING AND MINOR
FLOODING WAS OBSERVED DURING AN OVERFLIGHT. RISING WATER LEVELS
AND MINOR FLOODING WERE REPORTED AT MARSHALL ON FRIDAY. THE YUKON
RIVER BREAKUP FRONT WAS LIKELY ALONG THE STRETCH FROM PILOT
STATION TO MOUNTAIN VILLAGE AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. REPORTS WERE
RECEIVED OF MINOR FLOODING AT MARSHALL AND MOVING ICE AT MOUNTAIN
VILLAGE. AS OF SATURDAY MORNING THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF ICE
MOVING NEAR EMMONAK, NUNAM IQUA, AND KOTLIK.
THE SURGE OF WATER FROM THE HOLY CROSS ICE JAM RELEASE WILL
INCREASE ICE JAM AND FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR MARSHALL, PILOT
STATION, ST. MARY'S, AND MOUNTAIN VILLAGE. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THOSE SAME COMMUNITIES AS WELL AS RUSSIAN MISSION
AND HOLY CROSS. FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE
YUKON RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF RUSSIAN MISSION.
INNOKO: REPORTS FROM SHAGELUK INDICATE THAT THE INNOKO RIVER HAS
BEGUN TO BACKUP DUE TO HIGH WATER IN THE AREA. CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
CHENA: THE CHENA RIVER CONTINUES TO RESPOND TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWMELT LEADING TO RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN
NORMAL, BUT LIKELY REMAINING BELOW ACTION STAGE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVED FLOODING TO LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LATE TUESDAY, THE
PATTERN IS YET AGAIN DOMINATED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER BRISTOL BAY. THIS LOW BRINGS STRONG EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TO
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES LATE TUESDAY AS WELL AS ANOTHER FRONT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS LOW
STALLS AND SLOWLY WEAKENS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING ONCE AGAIN. AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE, BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED.
SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS WELL.
UNLIKE WITH PREVIOUS LOWS THIS ONE DOES NOT LINGER FOR LONG NEAR
BRISTOL BAY AND MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
THURSDAY AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD
TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN RESUMES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH LITTLE MORE
WEATHER THAN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ825-826.
PK...NONE.
STOKES
FIRE WEATHER- TROYKE
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