800
FXAK69 PAFG 241320
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
520 AM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY AND STORMY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING JUST
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND KOTZEBUE SOUND
THROUGH THE WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SOUTHERLY GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR DELTA JUNCTION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
(~30%) EXPECTED ACROSS THE YUKON FLATS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A TREND TOWARDS DRIER THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
MOST AREAS. STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR DELTA
JUNCTION ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (~15%) EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST,
ESPECIALLY NEAR KOTZEBUE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. DENSE FOG REMAINS
A THREAT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DUE TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT TO THE LISBURNE PENINSULA WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE AROUND THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
- EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF POINT BARROW AND UP TO
40 MPH WEST OF WAINWRIGHT.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BROAD TROUGHING SITS OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA WITH WEAKER RIDGING OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA STRENGTHENS THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS, IT WILL WORK TO DRAG THE
REMNANT BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE STATE DOWN SOUTH AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH SLOPE TO BRIEFLY
STRENGTHEN AS TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. WITH THESE SHOWERS, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER (~30%)
EXPECTED IN THE YUKON FLATS. ALTHOUGH RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS, HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR SHOULD WORK TO LIMIT
AFTERNOON VIRGA AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR SATURATION TO OCCUR AND
RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND WITHIN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
BY MONDAY, A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF WEATHER GOING INTO MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL, INCREASING VIRGA CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. AS THE
BERING SEA LOW APPROACHES BRISTOL BAY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE WILL TIGHTEN AND ALLOW FOR STRONG
SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS TO RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
NEAR DELTA JUNCTION AS WELL, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
DRY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS AS TUESDAY APPROACHES.
MORE CONSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GOING FORWARD
AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA ADVECTS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES INTO
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION WITH A TREND TOWARDS
DRIER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
GENERAL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS, FORTY MILE COUNTRY, AND THE NORTON SOUND COAST
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH
THE WEEK AS GENERAL TROUGHING LINGERS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN INTERIOR, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE, AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTON SOUND
COAST/NORTHERN YK DELTA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE
DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS, NEAR AMBLER AND SURROUNDING AREAS, AND THE
SEWARD PENINSULA. GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 30 MPH IN THESE AREAS,
WEAKENING BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTH SLOPE
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE TANANA VALLEY,
RETURNING TO THE MID 30 PERCENT RANGE BY THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER: THE ICE JAM DOWNRIVER FROM HOLY CROSS RELEASED
THURSDAY EVENING. WATER LEVELS IN HOLY CROSS FELL SEVERAL FEET.
DOWNRIVER AT RUSSIAN MISSION WATER LEVELS STARTED RISING AND MINOR
FLOODING WAS OBSERVED DURING AN OVERFLIGHT. RISING WATER LEVELS
AND MINOR FLOODING WERE REPORTED AT MARSHALL ON FRIDAY. THE YUKON
RIVER BREAKUP FRONT WAS LIKELY ALONG THE STRETCH FROM PILOT
STATION TO MOUNTAIN VILLAGE AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. REPORTS WERE
RECEIVED OF MINOR FLOODING AT MARSHALL AND MOVING ICE AT MOUNTAIN
VILLAGE. AS OF SATURDAY MORNING THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF ICE
MOVING NEAR EMMONAK, NUNAM IQUA, AND KOTLIK.
THE SURGE OF WATER FROM THE HOLY CROSS ICE JAM RELEASE WILL
INCREASE ICE JAM AND FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR MARSHALL, PILOT
STATION, ST. MARY'S, AND MOUNTAIN VILLAGE. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THOSE SAME COMMUNITIES AS WELL AS RUSSIAN MISSION
AND HOLY CROSS. FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE
YUKON RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF RUSSIAN MISSION.
INNOKO: REPORTS FROM SHAGELUK INDICATE THAT THE INNOKO RIVER HAS
BEGUN TO BACKUP DUE TO HIGH WATER IN THE AREA. CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
CHENA: THE CHENA RIVER CONTINUES TO RESPOND TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWMELT LEADING TO RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN
NORMAL, BUT LIKELY REMAINING BELOW ACTION STAGE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVED FLOODING TO LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES MIDWEEK AMONGST LONG RANGE FORECAST
MODELS, WHICH SHOW BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
AS THE MAIN 500 MB LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STABLE TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS KEEPING MOSTLY IN THE 50S/60S OUTSIDE OF SOME 20S/30S/40S
IN THE BROOKS RANGE, ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE, AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST COAST. AMPLE MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WORKING
OVER OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FOCUS IN THE INTERIOR AND ALASKA
RANGE WHERE THE BULK OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND DELTA JUNCTION
IN ADDITION TO THE NW ARCTIC COAST TO THE BERING STRAIT, WHERE GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THAT WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY
ONWARDS. THE EXCEPTION TO THE SUBSIDING WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE
NW ARCTIC COAST, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL, HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL BE IN
THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ825.
PK...NONE.
SANTIAGO
SRINIVASAN - FIRE WEATHER
MACKAY - EXTENDED
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