522
FXAK69 PAFG 242308
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
308 PM AKDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY AND STORMY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY
WITH SOUTHWESTWARD STORM MOTION. SHOWERY AND STORMY CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR MONDAY. LATE
MONDAY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS WHICH WEAKEN
TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES TUESDAY WHICH, ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS,
ELEVATES THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR DELTA JUNCTION.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
(~30%) EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE YUKON FLATS SOUTH TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEK BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AFTER TUESDAY.
- GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
MOST AREAS. STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS MONDAY NIGHT.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR DELTA JUNCTION
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (15%) ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. WEST/NORTHWEST FACING COASTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MORNING FOG.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT TO THE LISBURNE PENINSULA WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE AROUND THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
- EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF POINT BARROW AND UP TO
35 MPH NEAR POINT LAY. WINDS THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY, THE PATTERN IS IN A
TRANSITION STAGE BETWEEN 2 MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS PULLING WHAT REMAINS OF THE LOW OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE IS ABLE TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY AND EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. AS THIS SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR CAUSING SUNDAY TO BE MORE SHOWERY. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ALSO INCREASES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT MOST LIKELY FROM THE YUKON FLATS TO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
STORM MOTION COULD PULL SOME OF THE LONGER LASTING SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TANANA VALLEY INTO THAT
SAME VALLEY.
A WEAK RIDGE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SEPARATES THE DEPARTING LOW FROM
THE INCOMING ONE. THIS NEXT LOW RIDES ALONG THE ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR BRISTOL BAY BY MONDAY EVENING. IT'S
APPROACH TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AND SENDS
FORTH A SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
FROM THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY ALONG THE DALTON
HIGHWAY SUMMITS. BEHIND THE FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH
THE ALASKA RANGE YET AGAIN.
THIS SECOND LOW DOES NOT LINGER IN BRISTOL BAY AS LONG AS
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS HAVE AND BEGINS MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA
WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITIONS OUR PATTERN ONCE MORE INTO MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT ISOLATED BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL ALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TRIGGER OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN,
HOWEVER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIRECT THEM GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
LOWER LYING AREAS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LESSEN THROUGH THE
START OF THIS WEEK, WITH A GREATER FOCUS ON THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON
MONDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN OF THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE AS A NEW LOW
APPROACHES ALASKA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. AS IT GETS
CLOSER MONDAY AFTERNOON, EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN
REGIONS WILL STRENGTHEN. AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE INTERIOR
WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DROP MINIMUM RHS IN THE YUKON FLATS INTO THE LOW 20S ON
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WILL STRENGTHEN
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SQUEEZES INTO BRISTOL BAY AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNS PERPENDICULAR TO THE RANGE. THE STRONG
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS
INTO THE TANANA VALLEY WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AROUND DELTA JUNCTION ON TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER: AS OF 7PM SATURDAY THE RIVERWATCH TEAM REPORTED THAT
THE BREAKUP FRONT WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 12 MILES DOWNRIVER OF
MOUNTAIN VILLAGE. THE BREAKUP FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE
REMAINING IN-PLACE ICE. FLOODING IS ONGOING FOR THE COMMUNITIES OF
PILOT STATION, ST. MARY'S, AND MOUNTAIN VILLAGE. WATER IS
RECEDING FOR HOLY CROSS, RUSSIAN MISSION, AND MARSHALL. FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN VILLAGE, ST. MARY'S, PILOT
STATION, MARSHALL, RUSSIAN MISSION, AND HOLY CROSS.
OBSERVER REPORTS INDICATE THAT ICE IS MOVING SLOWLY BUT SMOOTHLY
DOWN KWIG PASS NEAR EMMONAK ADDITIONAL REPORTS INDICATE THAT ICE
IS MOVING AT NUNAM IQUA AND KOTLIK AS WELL. FOR THE YUKON DELTA,
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST SINCE 1989. FLOODING
IS LIKELY AT EMMONAK AND ALAKANUK, AND POSSIBLE AT KOTLIK. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON DELTA.
INNOKO: REPORTS FROM SHAGELUK INDICATE THAT HIGH WATER LEVELS ARE
RECEDING.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVED FLOODING TO LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY, THE
PATTERN IS PRIMARILY DEFINED BY A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
SITTING AT THE BOTTOM OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER MOST OF THE STATE. A
RIDGE IN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN SIBERIA FLANK THE TROUGH AND
KEEP THE PATTERN RELATIVELY STABLE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN FALLS AS THESE HIGHER
PRESSURE FEATURES SHIFT SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLY.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD EXPECTED
WEATHER REMAINS FAMILIAR WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTERIOR, SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE,
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. OVER THE WEEKEND CONFIDENCE DECREASES WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR A MORE DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE. THE MOST DRASTIC POTENTIAL
CHANGE IS THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CANADIAN RIDGE TO COVER MORE OF
ALASKA WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN. IT IS
HOWEVER A BIT MORE LIKELY THAT THE REGION REMAINS SUBJECT TO THE
TROUGH, ALTHOUGH ITS SHAPE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY HAVE SHIFTED
CONSIDERABLY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ825.
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ832.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-851-854.
STOKES
FIRE WEATHER- TROYKE
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