801
FXAK69 PAFG 251359
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
559 AM AKDT MON MAY 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK AS GENERAL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER
THE STATE. AS A BERING SEA LOW APPROACHES THE STATE LATER THIS
EVENING, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR DELTA JUNCTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON MIN RH VALUES. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND WEST COAST THIS WEEK
AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR, WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND YUKON FLATS WITH
WETTING RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER TODAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS THE YUKON FLATS,
WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE INTERIOR LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING NEAR 20 TO 30
MPH ACROSS MOST AREAS. STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR DELTA JUNCTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA THIS WEEK. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
NEAR THE NORTON SOUND COAST.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. WEST/NORTHWEST FACING COASTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE
MORNING FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT TO THE LISBURNE PENINSULA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
WEDNESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE AROUND THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
- EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF POINT BARROW AND UP TO 35
MPH NEAR POINT LAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREVIOUSLY SITTING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS MADE ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY REPLACED BY AN AREA OF WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOES NOT STAY PUT FOR LONG THOUGH AS A NEW BERING SEA LOW
TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
PUSHES THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. DURING THIS
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR, SEWARD PENINSULA, AND
AREAS ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO HIGHER PWAT
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION, WETTING RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTON SOUND COASTLINE.
BY MONDAY EVENING, THE BERING SEA LOW WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY INTO
BRISTOL BAY, WORKING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE
AND PUSH FORTH A SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR STRENGTHEN
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 MPH, AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION STRETCHING FROM
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE DOWN TOWARDS THE YK DELTA. BEHIND THE
FRONT, STRONG SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS RETURN TO THE ALAKSA RANGE PASSES
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEAR DELTA JUNCTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON IF MIN RH
VALUES ARE ABLE TO REACH 25%.
THIS BERING SEA LOW DOES NOT LINGER IN BRISTOL BAY AS LONG AS
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS HAVE AND WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH, BROAD
SCALE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE STATE,
KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
GENERAL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA,
BRINGING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE INTERIOR,
NORTHERN YK DELTA, AND SEWARD PENINSULA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN THE
AFTERNOONS OVER THE INTERIOR, WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA, AND NORTHERN
YK DELTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTED BY DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING AND HIGH TERRAIN INITIATION OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS/FORTY MILE COUNTRY TO THE EAST AND THE NULATO HILLS TO THE
WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
INTERIOR BEGINNING THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 30 MPH. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS OUT FOR THE DALTON
HIGHWAY SUMMITS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 55 MPH OVER THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE THROUGH ISABEL PASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY FOR THE
YUKON FLATS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S
PERCENT. FAIRBANKS AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS FOLLOW SUIT BY TUESDAY,
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING TO THE LOW 20S PERCENT. THESE DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM RHS
RISING BACK INTO THE 30S PERCENT RANGE BY THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER: AS OF SUNDAY EVENING, THE RIVER WATCH TEAM REPORTS
THICK BANK TO BANK ICE FLOWING STEADILY FROM MOUNTAIN VILLAGE
DOWNSTREAM FOR APPROXIMATELY 30 MILES. THIS ICE COULD REACH THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WATER THAT
HAS CAUSED FLOODING IN UPSTREAM AREAS WILL ARRIVE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THIS ICE RUN. BASED ON THE VERY HIGH WATER LEVELS SEEN AT THE
GAUGE IN PILOT STATION, COMMUNITIES COULD SEE THE HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS SINCE 1989. FLOODING IS ONGOING FOR THE COMMUNITIES OF PILOT
STATION, ST. MARY'S, AND MOUNTAIN VILLAGE. WATER IS RECEDING AT HOLY
CROSS, RUSSIAN MISSION, AND MARSHALL.
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR HOLY CROSS, RUSSIAN MISSION,
AND MARSHALL. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PILOT STATION, ST.
MARY'S, AND MOUNTAIN VILLAGE.
OBSERVER REPORTS INDICATE THAT ICE IS MOVING SLOWLY BUT SMOOTHLY
DOWN KWIG PASS NEAR EMMONAK. ADDITIONAL REPORTS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT NUNAM IQUA AND KOTLIK AS WELL. FOR THE YUKON DELTA, WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST SINCE 1989. FLOODING IS LIKELY
AT ALAKANUK AND EMMONAK, AND POSSIBLE AT KOTLIK. A FLOOD WARNING WAS
ISSUED SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALAKANUK AND EMMONAK FOR HIGH WATER AND
HEAVY ICE RUNS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON DELTA.
INNOKO: REPORTS FROM SHAGELUK INDICATE THAT HIGH WATER LEVELS ARE
RECEDING.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVED FLOODING TO LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY, THE
PATTERN IS PRIMARILY DEFINED BY A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SITTING
AT THE BOTTOM OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER MOST OF THE STATE. A RIDGE IN
CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN SIBERIA FLANK THE TROUGH AND KEEP THE
PATTERN RELATIVELY STABLE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN FALLS AS THESE HIGHER PRESSURE FEATURES
SHIFT SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLY. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD EXPECTED WEATHER REMAINS FAMILIAR WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR, SLIGHTLY COOLER
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVER THE WEEKEND CONFIDENCE
DECREASES WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE. THE
MOST DRASTIC POTENTIAL CHANGE IS THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CANADIAN
RIDGE TO COVER MORE OF ALASKA WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A WARMER AND DRIER
PATTERN. IT IS HOWEVER A BIT MORE LIKELY THAT THE REGION REMAINS
SUBJECT TO THE TROUGH, ALTHOUGH ITS SHAPE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY HAVE
SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ825.
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ832.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-812-857-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815-860-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
SANTIAGO
SRINIVASAN - FIRE WEATHER
MACKAY - EXTENDED
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