589
FXAK69 PAFG 252351
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
351 PM AKDT MON MAY 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, STRONGEST ACROSS THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS. ALONG
THE FRONT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH SOME REACHING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR. BEHIND THE FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
ONCE MORE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TUESDAY LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE PATTERN CALMS SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOME MUCH LESS CERTAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE INTERIOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH
FOR AREAS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS MONDAY NIGHT.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED NEAR DELTA
JUNCTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THIS WEEK. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE MIDDLE TO LOWER YUKON NORTH AND WEST TO THE
NORTON SOUND COAST.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN TO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT TO THE LISBURNE PENINSULA WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAIN GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EACH MORNING
THIS WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE.
- EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF POINT BARROW AND UP TO 35
MPH NEAR POINT LAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. GAPS IN THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE COMMON
FURTHER WEST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY, THE PATTERN IS ONE OF
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION CENTERED ON YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. ALONG THE FRONT HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER YUKON NORTH
AND EAST TO THE MIDDLE YUKON AND KOYUKUK RIVER VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR,
BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
SHIFT SOUTHERLY. STRONG GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW IN THE BERING WILL HAVE REACHED BRISTOL
BAY WHERE IT BRIEFLY STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST BEFORE
MOVING EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST WINDS WEAKEN IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
TO PUT NORTHERN ALASKA IN THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WEAKEN
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT FROM THE LISBURNE PENINSULA
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE NORTHERN
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. CALMER WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL HELP DRIVE CONTINUING EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING. WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THIS EASTERLY FLOW. DRY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE YUKON
FLATS COMBINED WITH GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR
THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20S. RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BERING SEA LOW
WILL SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES BEGINNING
TONIGHT; THROUGH ISABEL PASS AND DELTA JUNCTION, WINDS COULD GUST
TO OVER 50 MPH.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOVING INTO MID
WEEK WITH GENERAL DOWNSLOPING SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S AND MIN RH VALUES IN THE
20S AND 30S. WITH BOTH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS AT DELTA JUNCTION
TUESDAY, THIS COULD YIELD ELEVATED CONDITIONS, BUT MIN RH VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, ON THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE, AND ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. INCREASING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WITH MOISTER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR ON THURSDAY WITH A SUPPORTING WAVE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER: AS OF 1 PM MONDAY, THE RIVER WATCH TEAM OBSERVED THE
BREAKUP FRONT MOVING DOWNSTREAM PAST EMMONAK AND ALAKANUK WITH A
30 MILE RUN OF THICK BANK TO BANK ICE AND HIGH WATER UPSTREAM
STILL. KWIGUK PASS IS JAMMING UP AND WATER WILL BEGIN BACKING UP
AT EMMONAK. BASED ON THE VERY HIGH WATER LEVELS SEEN AT THE GAUGE
IN PILOT STATION, COMMUNITIES COULD SEE THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS
SINCE 1989. WATER HAS BEGUN TO RECEED AT PILOT STATION, ST.
MARY'S, AND MOUNTAIN VILLAGE.
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR HOLY CROSS, RUSSIAN MISSION,
AND MARSHALL. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PILOT STATION, ST.
MARY'S, MOUNTAIN VILLAGE, EMMONAK AND ALAKANUK. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE YUKON DELTA.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVED FLOODING TO LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LATE THURSDAY, THE
PATTERN IS THAT OF BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED AROUND A LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. RIDGING IN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA
WEAR AT THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO SHIFT SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLY
OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME CURRENTLY IS REMAINING WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MODERATED WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A LESS LIKELY, BUT MORE
DRAMATIC SOLUTION BEGINS BUILDING THE CANADIAN RIDGE FARTHER INTO
ALASKA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN WHICH COULD
LEAD TO WORSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENT ESTIMATES DO NOT
HAVE THE POTENTIAL RIDGE BEING VERY STRONG MEANING THAT STRONG
LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN COULD MORE EASILY SHIFT IT SHOULD
A RIDGE BEGIN DEVELOPING.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ825.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ832.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-812-816-817-854-857-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815-860-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
STOKES
FIRE WEATHER- SALTZMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page