961
FXAK69 PAFG 261213
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
413 AM AKDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AS BROAD SCALE TROUGHING PERSISTS. A
BERING SEA LOW SITTING IN BRISTOL BAY WILL WORK TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ALLOWING FOR STRONG
SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS BEFORE QUICKLY DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY ACROSS THE STATE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH FOR AREAS NORTH
OF FAIRBANKS. STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED NEAR DELTA
JUNCTION THIS AFTERNOON.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE
AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT TO THE LISBURNE PENINSULA WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EACH MORNING
THIS WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BROOKS RANGE AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BROOKS RANGE.
- EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF POINT
BARROW AND UP TO 35 MPH NEAR POINT LAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. GAPS IN THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE COMMON
FURTHER WEST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE STATE AS A BERING SEA LOW
SETTLES INTO BRISTOL BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL WORK TO
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ALAKSA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR DELTA JUNCTION THIS AFTERNOON,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE. A LINGERING FRONT
EJECTED OFF THE BERING SEA LOW WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY NORTH TOWARDS
THE BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR. WETTING RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WITH THESE
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.30 INCHES
AND RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30% RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE BERING SEA LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FROM BRISTOL
BAY EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST, IT BEGINS
TO PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SOUTH TOWARDS
THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS FROM THE LISBURNE
PENINSULA SOUTH TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT REMAINING GUSTY AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE HOLD STEADY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MODELS HINTING AT A SLIGHT WARM UP
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.
THIS SYSTEM PLAYS A LARGE ROLE IN SUPPORTING STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND DELTA JUNCTION WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
PERCENT RANGE AT DELTA JUNCTION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE DRIER
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD CREATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA AS STORMS WILL TEND TO INITIATE OFF OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE DRIEST OVER THE TANANA VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
RECOVERY INTO THE 40S PERCENT RANGE BY THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER: AT 10PM AKDT MONDAY, THE RIVER WATCH TEAM OBSERVED THE
BREAKUP FRONT MOVING DOWNSTREAM PAST EMMONAK AND ALAKANUK WITH A 30
MILE RUN OF THICK BANK TO BANK ICE AND HIGH WATER UPSTREAM. THERE
ARE REPORTS THAT KWIG PASS IS JAMMING UP AT THE MOUTH AND THAT WATER
WILL BEGIN BACKING UP INTO EMMONAK. THE HIGH WATER HAS CAUSED
FLOODING IN UPSTREAM AREAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS ICE RUN.
RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY.
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR HOLY CROSS, RUSSIAN MISSION,
MARSHALL, MOUNTAIN VILLAGE, AND PILOT STATION. FLOOD WARNINGS WERE
ISSUED FOR EMMONAK AND ALAKANUK. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ST. MARY'S. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON DELTA.
EMMONAK: AS OF 745PM, LOCAL OBSERVERS REPORT WATER IS RISING
STEADILY WITH ICE ONLY MOVING IN THE MIDDLE CHANNEL. EXPECT
CONTINUED STEADY RISES THROUGH THIS MORNING. IF ICE STOPS
COMPLETELY, WATER LEVELS WILL RISE FASTER. LOCAL OFFICIALS ADVISE
THAT THE EMMONAK HIGH SCHOOL IS A SAFE PLACE IF RESIDENTS SHOULD
NEED TO RELOCATE.
ALAKANUK: AS OF 4PM, RIVER WATCH OBSERVED A RUN OF 20 TO 30 MILES OF
HEAVY ICE AND HIGH WATER MOVING TOWARDS THE VILLAGE. LOCAL OBSERVERS
REPORTED MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING, PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTH RIVER
BANK. EXPECT CONTINUED STEADY RISES THROUGH THIS MORNING. IF ICE
STOPS COMPLETELY, WATER WILL RISE FASTER. THERE WAS A PARTIAL JAM
NOTED AT THE SOUTH MOUTH WITH CASEY CHANNEL AND THE ALAKANUK SLOUGH
AS THE PRIMARY OUTLETS FOR ICE TO PASS.
NUNAM IQUA: AS OF 2PM, RIVER WATCH OBSERVED A PARTIAL JAM NEAR THE
SOUTH MOUTH. ICE WAS PRIMARILY FLOWING THROUGH THE CASEY CHANNEL.
ANOTHER 20 TO 30 MILES OF HEAVY ICE AND HIGH WATER IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE WATER LEVELS RISE THROUGH THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE
PRECAUTIONS AND MONITOR.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVED FLOODING TO LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LATE THURSDAY, THE
PATTERN IS THAT OF BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED AROUND A LOW IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA. RIDGING IN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WEAR AT
THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO SHIFT SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
THE PATTERN EVOLVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
CURRENTLY IS REMAINING WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MODERATED WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A LESS LIKELY, BUT MORE DRAMATIC
SOLUTION BEGINS BUILDING THE CANADIAN RIDGE FARTHER INTO ALASKA
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN. CURRENT ENSEMBLE
ESTIMATES DO NOT HAVE THE POTENTIAL RIDGE BEING VERY STRONG, MEANING
THAT STRONG LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN COULD MORE EASILY SHIFT
IT SHOULD A RIDGE BEGIN DEVELOPING. CASE IN POINT, GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS FOCUSED IN THE INTERIOR AS DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG THE COASTS, AND TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY
REGIONWIDE BEFORE WARMING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ825.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ832.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-811-812-817-850-854-857-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-810-816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860-861.
SANTIAGO
SRINIVASAN - FIRE WEATHER
MACKAY - EXTENDED
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