489
FXAK69 PAFG 270004
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
404 PM AKDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING BERING SEA LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF, TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY, ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE
EXPANDING TO MOST OF THE INTERIOR BY THURSDAY.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR DELTA JUNCTION THIS AFTERNOON.
- CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE
AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY,
PARICULARLY NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THROUGH MID WEEK THEN REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.
- CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL PERSIST
UNTIL STEADILY INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EACH MORNING
THIS WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS. TEMPERATURES HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF EXCEEDING
FREEZING FOR A HIGH, RANGING BETWEEN MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
- EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT,
TRANSITIONING TO OFFSHORE WINDS BY THE LATE WEEKEND.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. GAPS IN THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE COMMON
FURTHER WEST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE STATE AS A BERING SEA
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO FILL. THE JET
STREAM ALOFT HAS MOVED FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP INTO THE ALASKA
RANGE TOWARDS THE COAST MOUNTAINS NEAR YAKUTAT AND INTO CANADA.
THEREFORE, PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEGUN TO RELAX AROUND THE
ALASKA RANGE; ALTHOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ISABEL PASS. FURTHERMORE, SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO DELTA JUNCTION ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A LACK OF
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOW
EXPECTED THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY. THE LINGERING FRONT EJECTED OFF
THE BERING SEA LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE, SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR. HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ARE ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE JUST NORTH OF THE YUKON FLATS,
WITH MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ANYWHERE BETWEEN
0.02-0.05 IN/HR CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
WETTING RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.30 INCHES AND RH VALUES DROP INTO
THE 20 TO 30% RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST PACKAGE. AS THE BERING SEA LOW MOVES EAST, IT BEGINS TO
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SOUTH TOWARDS
THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS FROM
THE LISBURNE PENINSULA SOUTH TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT REMAINING
GUSTY AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE HOLD STEADY ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MODELS HINTING AT A
SLIGHT WARM UP SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA, WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
SIBERIA AND EASTERN CANADA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE INTO DELTA JUNCTION WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKER WIND PATTERN COMBINED WITH
INCREASED SOLAR HEATING WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING
TREND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S PERCENT RANGE WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ON SOUTH-FACING SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO 60S THROUGH LATE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST EXPECTED TO REMAIN
COOLER IN THE MID 50S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, MAINLY OVER AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL REMAINS LIMITED WITH MANY LOCATION
RECEIVING LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER: AT 10PM AKDT MONDAY, THE RIVER WATCH TEAM OBSERVED THE
BREAKUP FRONT MOVING DOWNSTREAM PAST EMMONAK AND ALAKANUK WITH A 30
MILE RUN OF THICK BANK TO BANK ICE AND HIGH WATER UPSTREAM. THERE
ARE REPORTS THAT KWIG PASS IS JAMMING UP AT THE MOUTH, WITH WATER
BACKING UP NEAR EMMONAK. THE HIGH WATER HAS CAUSED FLOODING IN
UPSTREAM AREAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS ICE RUN. RESIDENTS SHOULD
TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARY'S, EMMONAK, AND
ALAKANUK. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON DELTA.
EMMONAK: AS OF 745PM MONDAY, LOCAL OBSERVERS REPORT WATER IS
RISING STEADILY WITH ICE ONLY MOVING IN THE MIDDLE CHANNEL. AS OF
1230PM TUESDAY, WATER HAS BEGUN TO FLOW OVER ROADS NEAR THE
CHANNEL. LOCAL OFFICIALS ADVISE THAT THE EMMONAK HIGH SCHOOL IS A
SAFE PLACE IF RESIDENTS SHOULD NEED TO RELOCATE.
ALAKANUK: AS OF 4PM MONDAY, RIVER WATCH OBSERVED A RUN OF 20 TO
30 MILES OF HEAVY ICE AND HIGH WATER MOVING TOWARDS THE VILLAGE.
LOCAL OBSERVERS REPORTED MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING, PRIMARILY ON
THE SOUTH RIVER BANK. IF ICE STOPS COMPLETELY, WATER WILL RISE
FASTER. THERE WAS A PARTIAL JAM NOTED AT THE SOUTH MOUTH WITH
CASEY CHANNEL AND THE ALAKANUK SLOUGH AS THE PRIMARY OUTLETS FOR
ICE TO PASS.
NUNAM IQUA: AS OF 2PM MONDAY, RIVER WATCH OBSERVED A PARTIAL JAM
NEAR THE SOUTH MOUTH. ICE WAS PRIMARILY FLOWING THROUGH THE CASEY
CHANNEL. ANOTHER 20 TO 30 MILES OF HEAVY ICE AND HIGH WATER IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE WATER LEVELS RISE THROUGH THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND MONITOR.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVED FLOODING TO LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CAN BE BROKEN UP INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY, AND
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SEE A CONTINUATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF WITH BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT, BETTER CONCENSUS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTH, BRINGING IN RIDGING IN BOTH
WESTERN CANADA AND NEAR SIBERIA. THEREFORE, A WARMER AND DRIER
PATTERN IS IN STORE, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR A HIGH, WITH AROUND A 50-60%
LIKELIHOOD OF EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES BY JUNE 1ST.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ825.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-811-812-817-850-854-857-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-810-816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860-861.
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