220
FXAK69 PAFG 271406
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
606 AM AKDT WED MAY 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE STATE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN BRISTOL BAY GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SIBERIA AND
THE CANADIAN YUKON LATER THIS WEEK, WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE
EXPANDING TO MOST OF THE INTERIOR BY THURSDAY.
- SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE
AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING BY THURSDAY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EACH MORNING
THIS WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS.
- EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST THIS
WEEK WITH LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE WEEKEND.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH GAPS IN THE CLOUDS BECOMING
MORE COMMON FARTHER WEST. CLEARER SKIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WINDS WEAKEN AND OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP
ALONG THE COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE STATE AS A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SITTING IN BRISTOL BAY GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN ALASKA. WETTING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 30% RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR WINDS THROUGH ISABEL PASS TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY, THE LOW WILL
HAVE REACHED THE GULF OF ALASKA AND PULLED A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SOUTH TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS WILL WORK
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER SIBERIA
AND CANADA WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED ENOUGH TO PUSH THE GULF LOW
FARTHER SOUTHEAST. AS THE SIBERIAN HIGH PUSHES INLAND FORM THE
WEST, GUSTY WINDS FROM THE LISBURNE PENINSULA SOUTH TOWARDS THE
BERING STRAIT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH BROAD SCALE RIDGING LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER MAY FINALLY BRING THE FIRST 70F DAY OF
THE SUMMER SEASON.
FIRE WEATHER
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. THESE SHOWERS GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AS A SIBERIAN HIGH BRINGS IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST
STARTING AROUND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE YUKON FLATS,
MOST OF THE INTERIOR, AND SEWARD PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE ALASKA RANGE AND WESTERN YK DELTA. THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH
ISABEL PASS. THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY DRIER
WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE FORTY MILE COUNTRY.
INCREASED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MIN RH VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 40S PERCENT RANGE BY THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND,
MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO EXCEED 70F EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR VALLEYS.
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER: RIVER WATCH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
CASEY CHANNEL AND THE SOUTH MOUTH WITH RELATIVE EASE. THE REMAINING
UPSTREAM ICE IS THINNING QUICKLY AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION NEAR THE
BANKS AS THE ICE RUN CONTINUES TO BE VERY DYNAMIC AND WATER LEVELS
CAN FLUCTUATE QUICKLY.
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARY'S, EMMONAK,
AND ALAKANUK. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON DELTA.
ST. MARY'S: AT 840PM, FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE. DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE HIGH WATER AND INUNDATION, THIS PROCESS COULD TAKE
SEVERAL DAYS. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE CAUTION IN AND AROUND AREAS THAT
WERE FLOODED.
EMMONAK: AT 845PM, LOCAL OBSERVERS REPORT THAT THE ICE RAN OUT
QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH WATER LEVELS DROPPING. HOWEVER, THE
ROADS TO THE AIRPORT REMAIN IMPASSABLE BY VEHICLE AT THIS TIME.
GIVEN THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ICE UPSTREAM IN THE YUKON, THE
FLOOD THREAT IS GREATLY DIMINISHING AND WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE CAUTION IN AND AROUND HIGH WATER.
ALAKANUK: AT 850PM, LOCAL OBSERVERS REPORT THAT THE WATER LEVELS
HAVE DROPPED 2 FEET SINCE TUESDAY MORNING AND ARE BELOW BANKFULL
THROUGHOUT THE VILLAGE. THE ROADS TO THE AIRPORT WERE COVERED WITH
WATER AS OF 2PM TUESDAY. RIVER WATCH OBSERVED THE ALAKANUK SLOUGH
WAS JAMMED AND BACKING UP AT THE MOUTH AT ROUGHLY 5PM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO NO ICE UPSTREAM IN THE YUKON, THE
FLOOD THREAT IS GREATLY DIMINISHING. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR THE ICE CHUNKS AND HIGH WATER.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVED FLOODING TO LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW
ENFORCEMENT, OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CAN BE BROKEN UP INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY, AND
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SEE A CONTINUATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF WITH BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE SPEED
AT WHICH THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT, THERE IS BETTER CONCENSUS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTH, BRINGING IN RIDGING FROM BOTH
WESTERN CANADA AND NEAR SIBERIA. THEREFORE, ISOLATED DAILY SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AS A WARMER AND DRIER
PATTERN DEVELOPS. THIS SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
FOR HIGHS, WITH AROUND A 50-60% LIKELIHOOD OF EXCEEDING 70F BY JUNE
1ST. OUTSIDE OF THE INTERIOR, TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BROADLY WARM. ON AVERAGE IN FAIRBANKS, OUR FIRST 70F DAY IS MAY 20TH
SO WHILE WE ARE A BIT BEHIND AVERAGE, WE ARE EXPECTING TO BE AHEAD
OF THE RECORD LATEST FIRST 70F DAY WHICH WAS SET LAST YEAR ON JUNE
11TH. OVERALL, WE ARE LOOKING AT A WARMER AND DRIER START TO JUNE
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF IN THE BERING AND PUSHES THE MORE FAVORABLE STORM TRACK DOWN
FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ825.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-811-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-810-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
SANTIAGO
SRINIVASAN - FIRE WEATHER
MACKAY - EXTENDED
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