081
FXAK69 PAFG 272332
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
332 PM AKDT WED MAY 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE STATE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN BRISTOL BAY GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY THURSDAY. A FRONT NEAR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF ALASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND,
WITH COVERAGE PRIMARILY FROM THE YUKON FLATS OVER TOWARDS THE
STEWARD PENINSULA AND DOWN TO THE ALASKA RANGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER SIBERIA AND THE CANADIAN YUKON LATER THIS WEEK, WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALASKA.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHEST CHANCES ARE FROM THE YUKON FLATS OVER TO
THE STEWARD PENINSULA. CHANCES EXPAND DOWN THE THE ALASKA RANGE
THURSDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TANANA VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE CONTINUING THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY
THURSDAY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS.
- EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THE LATE WEEKEND.
- GUSTY NORTHERLIES THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE BROOKS RANGE
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH GAPS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY. CLEARER SKIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS WINDS WEAKEN AND OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY:
SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE WILL DRIVE THE MOSTLY BENIGN PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A BROAD TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR THE BERING WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY A
BUILDING RIDGE NEAR SIBERIA. FURTHERMORE, NEAR THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE, A DIGGING TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. A FEW SURFACE FEATURES
WILL RESULT FROM THIS PATTERN: A FRONT LOOKS TO SLOWLY DESCEND
DOWN FROM THE NW PORTION OF THE STATE, MOVING SE TOWARDS THE
ALASKA RANGE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE, RESULTING IN DRIER
WEATHER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, AND GUSTIER CONDITIONS. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR, RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHILE
COMING TO AN ABRUPT END BEHIND THE FRONT.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TANANA VALLEY ON
FRIDAY, DUE TO MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE EAST, WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW FROM THE LOW IN THE GULF CAUSING OROGRAPHIC LIFTING UP
AGAINST THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. IT IS POSSIBLE TO
SEE RAIN SHOWERS WITH RAIN RATES EXCEEDING 0.1 IN/HR.
FIRE WEATHER
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST
MAINTAINS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH BRIEF WETTING IMPACTS AND INTERMITTENT RH
RECOVERY IN AREAS OF ACTIVITY. AS THIS ARCTIC LOW WEAKENS AND THE
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EXITS EAST, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BECOME MORE CONFINED AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD, WITH
DIMINISHING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS LIMIT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WIND CONCERNS
INLAND. HOWEVER, TERRAIN-DRIVEN CHANNELING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
LOCALIZED NORTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE AND INTO THE
UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS. AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE ARCTIC, STRONGER
WINDS FROM THE EAST DRIVE ACROSS THE YUKON FLATS AND FORTY MILE
COUNTRY LATER THIS WEEK. ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT, TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE ARCTIC LOW AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE STRAIT
AND IN WESTERN COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COAST. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES,
WINDS REMAIN VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY LIGHT INLAND WHILE COASTAL WIND
REGIMES PERSIST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE AND RELATIVELY
MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
EXPECTED YET, THOUGH HIGHER TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY STARTING NEXT
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER WATCH HAS CONCLUDED AS OF 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ICE CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CHANNELS INTO THE MOUTH WITH RELATIVE EASE WITH
UPSTREAM ICE MOVING UNHINDERED. RESIDENTS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION NEAR THE
BANKS AS THE ICE RUN CONTINUES TO BE VERY DYNAMIC AND WATER LEVELS
CAN FLUCTUATE QUICKLY. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ST.
MARY'S, EMMONAK, AND ALAKANUK, AND ARE SET TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5
PM WEDNESDAY.
ST. MARY'S: AT 840PM, FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE. DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE HIGH WATER AND INUNDATION, THIS PROCESS COULD TAKE
SEVERAL DAYS. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE CAUTION IN AND AROUND AREAS THAT
WERE FLOODED.
EMMONAK: WATERS CONTINUE TO RECEED. THE ROADS TO THE AIRPORT
REMAIN IMPASSABLE BY VEHICLE AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE
CAUTION IN AND AROUND HIGH WATER.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE
LATEST HYDRO INFORMATION.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SATURDAY SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE STATE. GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY COME TO THE CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG
SOUTH BY MONDAY, DRIVEN OUT BY RIDGING FROM BOTH WESTERN CANADA
AND NEAR SIBERIA. AS THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM IN THE INTERIOR
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS, WITH AROUND A
70-80% LIKELIHOOD OF EXCEEDING 70F BY JUNE 2ND. OUTSIDE OF THE
INTERIOR, TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BROADLY WARM. ON
AVERAGE IN FAIRBANKS, OUR FIRST 70F DAY IS MAY 20TH SO WHILE WE
ARE A BIT BEHIND AVERAGE, WE ARE EXPECTING TO BE AHEAD OF THE
RECORD LATEST FIRST 70F DAY WHICH WAS SET LAST YEAR ON JUNE 11TH.
OVERALL, WE ARE LOOKING AT A WARMER AND DRIER START TO JUNE ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE BERING AND PUSHES THE MORE FAVORABLE STORM TRACK DOWN FARTHER
TO OUR SOUTH.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ825.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-811-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-810-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
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