942
FXAK69 PAFG 282345
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
345 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS IN
GULF OF ALASKA, SENDING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ENERGY INTO THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SIBERIA AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, A FRONT EXTENDING AN ARCTIC TROUGH WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE EXTENDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE
WILL EXPAND FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
MONDAY, WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE STATE.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY,
LOCALIZING TO MAINLY THE FAIRBANKS AND TANANA VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK TO 70 AND
ABOVE.
- MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ON FRIDAY ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DECREASING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.
- GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
TODAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. VISIBILITIES ONE MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES AND MARINE WATERS, EXTENDING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, WITH
GAPS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. CLEARER SKIES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WINDS WEAKEN AND
OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE STATE TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER SIBERIA. ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE, AN
ARCTIC TROUGH TRIES TO DIG DOWN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BUT IS ALSO
PUSHED FARTHER EAST BY THE SIBERIAN HIGH. BY FRIDAY, A FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, EASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUOUSLY
SEND ENERGY INTO THE TANANA VALLEY AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 0.60 INCHES DUE TO STEADY MOISTURE INFLUX FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH A NORTHEAST WIND COURTESY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN GULF LOW, OROGRAPHIC FLOW UP
AGAINST THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL RESULT IN THE
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SHOWER. RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
0.20 IN/HR ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE TANANA VALLEY WITH 90%
CONFIDENCE ON FRIDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AS THE SIBERIAN HIGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND. ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THE
INTERIOR THANKS TO A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THAT LOW SLOWLY
LOSES STEAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD, ENDING UP IN THE MOST
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODERATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST AS BROAD SCALE TROUGHING PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE HIGH 50S/LOW 60S AND RHS SHOULD ONLY
GET AS LOW AS THE 30S WITH A SLIGHT EXCEPTION; A SURFACE HIGH THAT
SKIRTS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE, DOWNSLOPING AND DRYING OUT THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR ENOUGH TO SEE RHS IN THE MID 20S ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWER RHS, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, PARTICULARLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR FROM OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY, OUR FIRST DECENT RIDGE OF THE SEASON WILL START TO BUILD
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE LOOK TO BRIEFLY SWELL
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THEY DON'T APPEAR STRONG OR LONG LASTING ENOUGH TO
HAVE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER IMPACT. THE RIDGE DOMINATES ALASKA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LOW AND ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE IN THE 20S.
TROYKE
HYDROLOGY
YUKON RIVER: RIVER WATCH HAS CONCLUDED AS OF 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ICE
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CHANNELS INTO THE MOUTH WITH RELATIVE
EASE AND WITH UPSTREAM ICE MOVING UNHINDERED. RESIDENTS SHOULD STILL
USE CAUTION NEAR THE BANKS AS THE ICE RUN CONTINUES TO BE VERY
DYNAMIC AND WATER LEVELS CAN FLUCTUATE QUICKLY.
ALL FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED.
ST. MARY'S: AT 840PM TUESDAY, FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE HIGH WATER AND INUNDATION, THIS PROCESS
COULD TAKE SEVERAL DAYS. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE CAUTION IN AND AROUND
AREAS THAT WERE FLOODED.
EMMONAK: WATERS CONTINUE TO RECEED. THE ROADS TO THE AIRPORT REMAIN
IMPASSABLE BY VEHICLE AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE CAUTION IN
AND AROUND HIGH WATER.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ARCTIC TROUGH
DIGGING DOWN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
SCENARIO AT AROUND 80% IS THE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, BEFORE WEAKENING FROM THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AND MOVING INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. FURTHERMORE, WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR ANCHORAGE OVER TO THE
FAIRWEATHER RANGE, AND AN ARCTIC TROUGH NEAR THE YUKON FLATS ON
SUNDAY, INCREASED SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE
MAY BRING LOWER RHS TO THE TANANA VALLEY AS WELL AS REDUCED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CANADA, A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE NEAR SIBERIA WILL CAUSE BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, AND CAUSING
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
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