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FXAK69 PAFG 292332
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
332 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE STATE TODAY SITUATED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND GULF OF ALASKA. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SIBERIA, TWO COLD FRONTS, ONE TODAY AND
ONE ON SUNDAY, WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
AFTERNOON HAS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE SHOWERS FOR THE
TANANA VALLEY WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. WINDS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA AND
CANADA BUILD FURTHER INLAND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DECREASES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW 70S EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY.
- LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY AND ALASKA RANGE PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR SIMILAR AREAS THIS WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
- LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG THE COAST, MOVING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND RETREATING
DURING THE DAY. VISIBILITIES ONE MILE AND BELOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
FOG.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING TO AROUND 70F IN THE VALLEYS
BY TUESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, REACHING THE . HIGHS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE BY
TUESDAY.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES CONTINUE TODAY
WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH.
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE, WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS WINDS WEAKEN AND OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE COAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY:
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES STILL OVER THE STATE TODAY
SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA. BOTH OF THESE LOWS WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SIBERIA THIS WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA, FOLLOWING A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT;
HOWEVER, WITH CONSTANT OVERCAST SKIES AND LITTLE SURFACE HEATING,
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDER CHANCES. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHTER
SHOWERS. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 0.5 INCHES, NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, AND WITH A MOSTLY SATURATED PROFILE AND CAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 300 J/KG, RAIN RATES BETWEEN 0.15 - 0.25 IN/HR ARE
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, WEAK DIRECTING FLOW MEANS THAT ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP ALONG THE VERY SLOW FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE FAST ACCUMULATING TOTALS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR THESE MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE ALASKA RANGE FROM THE TANANA VALLEY TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY, WITH OROGRAPHIC HELPING INITIATE THESE STORMS. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY LOOK WEAKER COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASED
DRYING FROM THE 700 MB LAYER AND ABOVE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE TIGHTENS ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR,
WITH DRYING WINDS.
FOR THE WEST COAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE BERING SEA LOOKS
TO BRING CLEARING SKIES AND FOG CHANCES OVER THE WATER AND COASTAL
AREAS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS COULD MOVE AS FAR AS PILOT STATION ON
THE YK DELTA, WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE. IT IS
POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME LONGER LASTING CLEARING ON SUNDAY, AS
VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVING OVER THE AREA MAY SCOUR OUT CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THE INTERIOR, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE YUKON FLATS AND RAY MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA,
COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES, ENDING IN THE MOST
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODERATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST AS BROAD SCALE TROUGHING PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE HIGH 50S/LOW 60S AND RHS SHOULD ONLY
GET AS LOW AS THE 30S WITH A SLIGHT EXCEPTION; A SURFACE HIGH THAT
SKIRTS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE BROOKS RANGE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
HELP TO DRY OUT THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ENOUGH TO SEE RHS IN THE MID
20S ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER RHS, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY, A RIDGE WILL START TO START TO EXTEND OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE LOOK TO BRIEFLY SWELL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THEY
DON'T APPEAR STRONG OR LONG LASTING ENOUGH TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER IMPACT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AS WELL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 30 MPH IN THE DALTON HIGHWAY AND WHITE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS, BUT
MOST OTHER AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
MONDAY, WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND HAVE SIMILAR STRENGTH TO
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOW AND ALLOWING DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN INTERIOR VALLEYS TO REACH THE MID 70S TUESDAY
AN POSSIBLY UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. WHERE THERE ARE CLEAR SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE IN THE
20S.
HYDROLOGY
SAGAVANIRKTOK RIVER: SOME OVERFLOWING IS OCCURRING; HOWEVER,
BREAKUP ALONG THE SAG RIVER HAS NOT BEGUN YET. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 30S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW NORMAL GOING INTO THE LATE WEEK.
NEAR THE SAG RIVER SOURCE ON THE NORTH BROOK RANGE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID 50S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
SNOW LEVELS REACHING UPWARDS OF 4000 FT. AGAIN, TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO MODERATE GOING INTO THE LATE WEEK BUT CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING.
YUKON RIVER: RIVER WATCH HAS CONCLUDED AS OF 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ICE
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CHANNELS INTO THE MOUTH WITH RELATIVE
EASE AND WITH UPSTREAM ICE MOVING UNHINDERED. RESIDENTS SHOULD STILL
USE CAUTION NEAR THE BANKS AS THE ICE RUN CONTINUES TO BE VERY
DYNAMIC AND WATER LEVELS CAN FLUCTUATE QUICKLY.
ALL FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST
HYDRO INFORMATION.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MONDAY SEES THE SIBERIAN RIDGE DOMINATE MOST OF ALASKA, WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE, WARMING TEMPERATURES, REDUCING WIND
SPEEDS, AND REDUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BIGGER STORY FOR THE EXTENDED IS HOW FAST THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN. AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE TWO CAMPS. THE FIRST BEING AN ARCTIC
TROUGH MOVING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR; HOWEVER, FOR THIS
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THIS TROUGH
WILL DIG. CURRENT PROGS INDICATE ANYWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR BEFORE MOVING INTO CANADA. LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS
SOLUTION IS AROUND 70% AND WOULD MODERATE MUCH OF OUR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LESS LIKELY
SOLUTION AT AROUND 30% SEES THE THE RIDGE HOLD ON, WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES, EVEN NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...NONE.
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