057
FXAK69 PAFG 171347
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
547 AM AKDT WED JUN 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WEEK, WITH OTHERWISE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HIGHS COULD RISE
FROM THE UPPER 60S AND 70S TODAY INTO THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S BY
LATE THIS WEEK. THE SOUTHERN ARCTIC PLAINS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S, WITH THE ARCTIC COAST IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE FROM LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND
COULD TOTAL UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE INTERIOR AND ON
THE NORTH SLOPE.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH A
WARMING TREND BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY
FRIDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE INTERIOR AND 50S ALONG THE COAST. GRADUAL WARMING BY
ABOUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES A DAY CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND WILL BE ISOLATED OVER
MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ON THURSDAY IN THE INTERIOR THEN TRACK
EAST ON FRIDAY.
- A LOW MOVES TO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE AN
ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- OTHER THAN SOME SHOWERS, THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS ENDED. A FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COLVILLE RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH FLOOD WATCHES ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING.
- WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE BROOKS RANGE
VALLEYS BY THURSDAY.
- THE WARMER TEMPS WILL ALSO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TO START THE PERIOD, RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA, WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND NORTHWEST ARCTIC. ADDITIONAL RIDGING IS IN PLACE IN
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. ASIDE FROM SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ON THE ARCTIC AND WEST COAST, AREAS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING; MORE SUBSTANTIVE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
ELSEWHERE, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME
WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOW DOUBLE DIGITS CELSIUS IN THE INTERIOR AS RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT FROM THE EAST LATER THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY
RISING FROM THE MID 70S INTO THE 80S. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN NEAR-COASTAL PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALASKA
(WITH 50S RIGHTS ON THE WATER) ARE LIKELY FOR HIGHS AS THE UPPER
LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD. HIGHS ON THE NORTH SLOPE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE ARCTIC PLAINS, WITH 40S AND 50S ON THE
COAST. MOVING INTO LATER THIS WEEK, WHILE THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY FOCUSED NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER, A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
SURFACE-BASED CAPE WITH LI VALUES IN THE −1 TO −3 RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND GENERAL DIURNAL HEATING
TO YIELD THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY, WITH
THE PATTERN FINALLY STARTING TO RESEMBLE A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE SET
UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR THIS WEEK, WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING AS
HIGH AS 80F TO 85F POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 75F AS WELL BY THE WEEKEND.
MIN RHS WILL MOSTLY STAY ABOVE 30% THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE YUKON FLATS AND TANANA VALLEY WHERE MIN RH VALUES
MAY REACH AS LOW AS 25% AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO SOLAR MIXING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR, ALASKA RANGE,
AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR, YUKON FLATS, AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY BY
FRIDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AND MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND. DUE TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND LIGHT WINDS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND RIDGING OVER CANADA'S YUKON TERRITORIES. THE WEST COAST
TROUGH IS COMPOSED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AND AN ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE THAT PIVOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ON SUNDAY TOO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATES A
WARM SUMMER-LIKE AIR MASS ACROSS THE EAST AND A COOL MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY FOCUSES THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR REMAINS LOW. OTHERWISE,
WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80F CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BACK DOWN TO AROUND 70F EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACCOMPANIES THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
LOCATIONS THAT MISS OUT ON THUNDERSTORMS DRYING OUT QUITE A BIT OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 220 PM AKDT TUE JUN 16 2026/
HYDROLOGY
MOST OF THE RAIN IS ENDING ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE
BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ISSUED INCLUDING AN
ADVISORY ALONG THE COLVILLE AND SAG AND A WARNING IN
WISEMAN/COLDFOOT. WATCHES ARE ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE NORTH SLOPE,
BROOKS RANGE AND THE KOYUKUK RIVER TO ALLAKAKET.
SEE WEATHER.GOV/AFG FOR THE MOST UPDATED FLOODING PRODUCTS AND
WATER.NOAA.GOV FOR THE MOST UPDATED RIVER GAUGE FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE, WE ANTICIPATE HIGH WATER AND RIVER RISES AS THE
SNOWMELT CONTINUES AND RAIN ENDS. IMPACTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH SLOPE AS IT TAKES A
WHILE FOR ALL OF THE WATER TO PASS THROUGH THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST
FORECAST FOR THE SAG RIVER ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY IS, BETWEEN
MILEPOSTS 310-340, ROAD WASHOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE SAG RIVER AND IN THE VICINITY OF STREAM CROSSINGS
IF LINGERING ICE RESULTS IN CULVERT BLOCKAGES. ON THE COLVILLE
FROM UMIAT TO NUIQSUT, MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS DUE TO
RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES AND CONTINUING RAIN ON RESIDUAL SNOWPACK
IS POSSIBLE. THE FLOOD CREST SHOULD ATTENUATE AS IT PROGRESSES
DOWNSTREAM, BUT WATER LEVELS ARE ALREADY HIGH IN UMIAT AND MINOR
FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
HIGH WATER NEAR COLDFOOT AND WISEMAN WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE
TODAY BUT IT IS FLOWING TOWARDS BETTLES AND ALLAKAKET CURRENTLY.
THE RIVER GAUGE IN BETTLES IS BEGINNING TO RISE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CURRENT
FORECASTED CREST AROUND 22.70 FEET. ALLAKAKET WILL SEE THEIR
HIGHEST WATER ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE WATER CONTINUES TO RISE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ804>810.
PK...NONE.
DS
EXTENDED - EK
FIRE WEATHER - SANTAGIO
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