741
FXAK69 PAFG 172354
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 PM AKDT WED JUN 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S LIKELY IN MOST INTERIOR
VALLEYS BY FRIDAY. THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE YUKON
FLATS AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS SOME SPOTS REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S. THE WEST COAST REMAINS SEASONABLY COOL, IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S WHILE THE NORTH SLOPE IS WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 70S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, AND 60S/70S IN THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY. BACK TO THE THUNDERSTORMS, THEY WILL DEVELOP NOT ONLY
IN THE INTERIOR, BUT ALSO THE BROOKS RANGE, NORTH SLOPE AND SEWARD
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT IT IS A BUSY
WEEKEND FOR ACTIVITIES IN NORTHERN ALASKA, KEEP AND EYE TO THE SKY
AND BE WEATHER AWARE AS A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
STRONG.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A WARMING TREND BEGINNING TODAY WITH HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED IN THE
YUKON FLATS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE PREVALENT
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR IS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IN
THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS IN 60S TO NEAR 70 TODAY, THEN MID TO
UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY AND TOMORROW
THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED
OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, WHILE
THURSDAY SHIFTS TO MOSTLY THE INTERIOR AND BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS.
- THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ON FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR, MOSTLY
FROM MCGRATH TO HUSLIA EAST. A FARTHER EAST PROGRESSION PERSISTS
ON SATURDAY WITH MOST STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF RUBY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY, GETTING UP TO THE 50S, EVEN NEAR 60 FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST, 60S TO MID 70S IN THE PLAINS AND 70S TO
NEAR 80 FOR THE VALLEYS OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAIN
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MOST ABUNDANT COVERAGE
BEING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE WARMING PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
EAST INTO SE AK THEN AWAY FROM THE STATE BY FRIDAY. WHILE THIS IS
HAPPENING, A LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DROP SOUTH AND PHASE
WITH ENERGY MOVING OVER THE BERING ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A
A FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LOW TO CLOSE OFF AT ABOUT 561 DECAMETERS. THIS
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DROP SOUTH
TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
IMPORTANCE OF THIS LOW IS IT KEEPS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR COOLER THAN THE REST OF NORTHERN ALASKA WHILE ALSO
PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK
IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA, RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INFLUX OF MUCH WARMER 850MB TEMPS. CURRENTLY THEY ARE
AROUND 5 TO 10C WITH THE WARMEST BEING IN THE SE INTERIOR AND THE
COOLEST ON THE NORTH SLOPE. BY FRIDAY, THEY WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND
12C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, EXCLUDING THE WEST COAST WHICH REMAINS
COOLER. ONCE WE GET 10-12C 850MB TEMPS, SURFACE TEMPS CAN APPROACH
80F. WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY,
BETWEEN 10-14C. THIS CAN ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S, POTENTIALLY UPPER 80S IN THE YUKON FLATS. UP NORTH THERE
WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPS TO
ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS FRONT LOOKED A BIT MORE AMPED
YESTERDAY, BUT TODAY IS WEAKER AND REMAINING FARTHER NORTH.
THEREFORE, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN WARM FOR QUITE A WHILE FROM THE
BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD, BUT CHILLY NORTH OF THERE INTO NEXT WEEK.
WITH WARM WEATHER COMES THUNDERSTORMS AND OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY LOOK
PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL. THERE ARE A LOT OF ACTIVITIES GOING ON
AROUND THE STATE AND WE ARE EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND OTHER TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM ATTRIBUTES. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, BUT NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE INTERIOR, ALLOWING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUOUSLY DEVELOP. FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CHANCE TO CONTINUE DUE TO
THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT. THIS ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM TREND WITH WARM
WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST PREVALENT DAYS IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, THOUGH THESE
STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR
WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. WE MAY SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW FOR NOW. WE DO HOWEVER HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S TODAY, MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY, THEN
WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
WESTERN INTERIOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY SOME UPPER 70S THIS
WEEKEND. WE WILL BE MONITORING HOW THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. RHS WILL DRY OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE YUKON
FLATS AND TANANA VALLEY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MINIMUMS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, RHS IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S SEEM REASONABLE WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
MOST OF THE CONCERN FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN THE BROOKS RANGE
HAS DIMINISHED. WE'LL NOTICE SOME HIGHER WATER IN ALLAKAKET
TOMORROW AS WELL AS ON THE COLVILLE RIVER. BUT OBSERVED VALUES
HAVE BEEN NEAR BANKFULL. WE STILL HAVE A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
COLVILLE RIVER AND UMIAT WILL BE SEEING CRESTING WATER OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WATER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNRIVER TOWARDS
NUIQSUT WITH MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...NONE.
BIANCO
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