754
FXAK69 PAFG 182233
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
233 PM AKDT THU JUN 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARMER WEATHER HAS ARRIVED IN THE INTERIOR AND WE ARE NOTICING
OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND TOMORROW. COVERAGE
INCREASES IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR TOMORROW AND SATURDAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, IN THE 80S EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT IN THE BROOKS RANGE
AND NORTH SLOPE THROUGH SATURDAY BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ENDING THE WARMING TREND ON THE NORTH SLOPE.
ON THE WEST COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH AREAS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA, BUT TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH DRYING CONDITIONS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- VERY WARM, WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TODAY, THEN LOW TO MID 80S TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
ISOLATED STORMS NORTH.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S, WARMING THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST SPOTS IN
THE LOW 60S FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH.
- HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S TODAY WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY FROM RUBY SOUTH/EAST.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY BUT RETURN TO BEING ISOLATED.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN SW AK TODAY WILL GRADUALLY END BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TOTALS WILL BE 0.10 TO 0.25".
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- WARM, HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S ALONG THE COAST AND 60S/70S IN THE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. GRADUALLY COOLING ON SATURDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.
- EXPECT NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE VALLEYS TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND
NEAR 80 THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN DROP ON SUNDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE PLAINS
AND BROOKS RANGE. MORE PREDOMINANT IN THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE
ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
OUR PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AS EXPECTED WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. WE WILL REMAIN A BIT
CLOUDY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WEST COAST AS A LOW
KEEPS IT UNSETTLED TODAY INTO TOMORROW, BUT THERE WILL BE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND
RIDGING BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE, TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTH SLOPE TO THE
AK RANGE AND EVERYWHERE IN BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM,
WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH SLOPE.
SPEAKING OF THE NORTH SLOPE, THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SPARK SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO, BUT THE MAIN CHANCE WILL
BE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE VALLEYS.
GETTING A BIT MORE SPECIFIC WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACTLY PLACEMENT OF THE MOST ROBUST
STORMS. AS OF NOW, TODAY AND TOMORROW LOOK TO BE THE ALASKA RANGE
AND WESTERN INTERIOR SHOW, WHEREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR. ONE OF THE BIG PLAYERS WITH THE
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORMS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY. IT IS AN AMPED PIECE OF
ENERGY AS IT GLIDES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY, BUT IT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE AK RANGE AND INTERIOR ON SATURDAY. TIMING OF
THIS IS CRUCIAL BECAUSE IT CAN DIRECTLY IMPACT NUMEROUS EVENTS
GOING ON IN FAIRBANKS. IF THIS WAVE MOVES IN QUICKLY ON SATURDAY,
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING, LEAVING A QUIETER
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THIS WAVE IS A BIT SLOWER, IT WILL MAKE FOR
A POTENTIALLY EVENTFUL AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE INTERIOR. RIGHT
NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS AN EVENING TIME FRAME, WHICH WOULD LINE
UP WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ONE OTHER PIECE OF
INFORMATION IS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EAST, SO
THE MOST ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR,
BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.
NONETHELESS, THE PATTERN CONTINUES AS EXPECTED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN MOST SPOTS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS WITH MOST
THUNDERSTORM EVENTS, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE IMPACTS. DURING THIS BIG
WEEKEND FOR ALASKA, REMEMBER TO STAY WEATHER AWARE AND KEEP YOUR
EYES TO THE SKY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE, SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT, WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM HEALY THROUGH THE TANANA VALLEY
INTO THE ALCAN BORDER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BASED
OF THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE WEEKEND, STAY TUNED AS WE MONITOR
GUIDANCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY;
AREAS OF CONCERN MIGHT SHIFT FARTHER EAST. KEEP A SHARP LOOKOUT
AND BE READY FOR STRONG GUSTS AND LIGHTNING NEAR AND AROUND DARK
RAIN PRODUCING CLOUDS. AS THE AICC MENTIONED IN THEIR MORNING
BRIEF, THIS COULD BE THE LARGEST LIGHTNING PRODUCING WEEKEND OF
THIS FIRE SEASON SO FAR.
ACCOMPANYING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOME OF THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR, HIGHS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER, LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY SEEING A FEW SPOTS REACH THE UPPER 70S BY
THE WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR 30 PERCENT, THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN THE TANANA VALLEY AND YUKON FLATS BY TOMORROW.
HYDROLOGY
AFTER A WET WEEK ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE, WATER LEVELS
IN THE RIVERS ARE RECEDING. WE HAVE CANCELLED OR EXPIRED ALL
FLOOD HAZARDS AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. RIVERS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS WEAK RIDGING IN THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND
TROUGHING DIGS JUST SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR WILL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
CONTINUING TO SUPPLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE INTERIOR,
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. ON THE OTHER HAND, GUIDANCE FAVORS
WEAK TROUGHING FOR THE NORTH SLOPE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL EXCEPTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT RIDGING WILL EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST, GIVING THEM A RESPITE FROM GENERALLY COOLER AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS TIME NEXT WEEK, SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS
INDICATE TROUGHING MAY FINALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR
BRINGING THE RETURN OF COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER, BUT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FAVORS WEAK RIDGING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...NONE.
BIANCO
PARK - FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
SCHLEZINGER - EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
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